Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Browns, while the market favors Steelers (100%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Steelers (-14.5)

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Browns (70%) · Browns at 0.1¢ · $14K held

Steelers>99¢Browns<1¢View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Browns

Consensus Traders

Browns 70%

Total Value

$14.3K

Combined PnL

$-24.8K

Smart Money Entry

50.8¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidBrowns at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Browns

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Steelers 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Steelers100%

Browns0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Steelers3 traders

Total Value$14.2K

Total Shares16,980

Combined PnL+$483.71

Browns7 traders

Total Value$85.64

Total Shares50,396

Combined PnL$-25.3K

Steelers — 30%Browns — 70%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Steelersavg 53.9¢	$9.2K	$9.1K	-$77.35	54% 57187-49444 (106631)
AN Anon455	Steelersavg 51¢	$2.5K	$2.7K	+$125	55% 3014-2443 (5457)
JU justaluckydude	Steelersavg 76.2¢	$2.0K	$2.4K	+$436.06	53% 11037-9631 (20668)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Brownsavg 50¢	$75.7	$74.94	-$0.76	50% 3948-3932 (7880)
AV averagejoetradersCTR<$100	Brownsavg 58¢	$5.24	$5.73	+$0.5	57% 572-439 (1011)
OX oxe78sh4w98CTR<$100	Brownsavg 65¢	$5.01	$4.85	-$0.15	53% 462-411 (873)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Brownsavg 19.8¢	$22.68	$0.06	-$22.62	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Brownsavg 29¢	$422.47	$0.05	+$147.27	48% 8991-9637 (18628)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Brownsavg 31¢	$4.26	$0.01	-$4.25	56% 14257-11059 (25316)
SI sinasinnerCTR	Brownsavg 50.9¢	$25.5K	—	$-25.5K	48% 28-30 (58)

RN1

Steelers

Invested

$9,214.31

Value

$9.1K

PnL

-$77.35

Record

54%

57187-49444 (106631)

Anon455

Steelers

Invested

$2,550

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$125

Record

55%

3014-2443 (5457)

justaluckydude

Steelers

Invested

$1,954.87

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$436.06

Record

53%

11037-9631 (20668)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Browns

Invested

$75.7

Value

$74.94

PnL

-$0.76

Record

50%

3948-3932 (7880)

averagejoetradersCTR<$100

Browns

Invested

$5.24

Value

$5.73

PnL

+$0.5

Record

57%

572-439 (1011)

oxe78sh4w98CTR<$100

Browns

Invested

$5.01

Value

$4.85

PnL

-$0.15

Record

53%

462-411 (873)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Browns

Invested

$22.68

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$22.62

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

topdogbigboiCTR

Browns

Invested

$422.47

Value

$0.05

PnL

+$147.27

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Browns

Invested

$4.26

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$4.25

Record

56%

14257-11059 (25316)

sinasinnerCTR

Browns

Invested

$25,451.01

Value

—

PnL

$-25.5K

Record

48%

28-30 (58)

Research grade

AvoidBrowns at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Browns

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Steelers 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Browns wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.