Spread: Chiefs (-3.5)

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Broncos (67%) · Broncos at 53¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 1

Chiefs47¢Broncos53¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Broncos

Consensus Traders

Broncos 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.5K

Combined PnL

$-2.5K

Smart Money Entry

59.9¢ → 53¢

-12% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralBroncos at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Broncos

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Chiefs47%

Broncos53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Broncos6 traders

Total Value$9.2K

Total Shares19,553

Combined PnL$-2.5K

Chiefs3 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares3,206

Combined PnL+$15.8

Broncos — 67%Chiefs — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormake	Broncosavg 60¢	$9.0K	$6.4K	$-2.6K	53% 4278-3736 (8014)
RollAwayTheDew	Broncosavg 57¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$121.96	53% 453-396 (849)
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Chiefsavg 37¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$15.93	43% 561-738 (1299)
HO HomeRunHazard	Broncosavg 62¢	$732.22	$738.13	+$5.9	54% 17338-14559 (31897)
0xheavy888	Broncosavg 63¢	$708.75	$703.13	-$5.63	55% 7319-5884 (13203)
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Broncosavg 68¢	$89.46	$73.76	-$15.71	53% 11037-9631 (20668)
└ Chiefs leg	Chiefsavg 48.8¢	$32.3	$38.03	+$5.73
└ Broncos leg	Broncosavg 68¢	$57.16	$35.72	-$21.43
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Broncosavg 59¢	$27.73	$27.49	-$0.24	50% 3948-3932 (7880)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Broncosavg 51¢	$7.14	$5.95	-$1.19	48% 8991-9637 (18628)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Chiefsavg 33¢	$4.95	$5.1	+$0.15	56% 14257-11059 (25316)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Chiefsavg 43¢	$2.15	$1.88	-$0.27	59% 30682-21402 (52084)

takeormake

Broncos

Invested

$8,983.85

Value

$6.4K

PnL

$-2.6K

Record

53%

4278-3736 (8014)

RollAwayTheDew

Broncos

Invested

$1,263.92

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$121.96

Record

53%

453-396 (849)

BreakTheBankCTR

Chiefs

Invested

$1,178.82

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$15.93

Record

43%

561-738 (1299)

HomeRunHazard

Broncos

Invested

$732.22

Value

$738.13

PnL

+$5.9

Record

54%

17338-14559 (31897)

0xheavy888

Broncos

Invested

$708.75

Value

$703.13

PnL

-$5.63

Record

55%

7319-5884 (13203)

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Broncos

Invested

$89.46

Value

$73.76

PnL

-$15.71

Record

53%

11037-9631 (20668)

Both legs:

Chiefs$32.348.8¢+$5.73

Broncos$57.1668¢-$21.43

NatoAlfista<$100

Broncos

Invested

$27.73

Value

$27.49

PnL

-$0.24

Record

50%

3948-3932 (7880)

topdogbigboi<$100

Broncos

Invested

$7.14

Value

$5.95

PnL

-$1.19

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Chiefs

Invested

$4.95

Value

$5.1

PnL

+$0.15

Record

56%

14257-11059 (25316)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Chiefs

Invested

$2.15

Value

$1.88

PnL

-$0.27

Record

59%

30682-21402 (52084)

Research grade

NeutralBroncos at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Broncos

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Broncos wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.2%

53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$81.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

181.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.