Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (52%). 8 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Raiders vs. 49ers: O/U 52.5

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (73%) · Over at 49¢ · $43K held · ended Nov 8

Over49¢Under51¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 73%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$43.0K

Combined PnL

$200.54

Smart Money Entry

47¢ → 48.5¢

+3% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Under 52%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over49%

Under52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over8 traders

Total Value$20.7K

Total Shares43,128

Combined PnL+$352.94

Under3 traders

Total Value$13.5K

Total Shares25,679

Combined PnL-$152.4

Over — 73%Under — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Late

94h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Overavg 47¢	$12.9K	$13.2K	+$275.44	41% 644-941 (1585)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Underavg 53¢	$12.3K	$12.2K	-$116.4	46% 33409-38908 (72317)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 47¢	$7.2K	$7.4K	+$190.63	54% 19989-16868 (36857)
└ Over leg	Overavg 47¢	$5.9K	$5.9K	+$62.55
└ Under leg	Underavg 48¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$128.08
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Overavg 47¢	$6.6K	$6.7K	+$70.12	53% 6644-5935 (12579)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 47.1¢	$1.4K	$1.1K	+$20.52	48% 70290-75979 (146269)
└ Over leg	Overavg 47.1¢	$629.91	$648.2	+$27.35
└ Under leg	Underavg 51.7¢	$448.85	$447.08	-$6.83
AN Anon455	Underavg 53¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$30	54% 3943-3319 (7262)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Overavg 50¢	$317.2	$309.82	-$7.38	58% 22563-16669 (39232)
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$175	$166.25	-$8.75
└ Under leg	Underavg 52¢	$142.2	$143.57	+$1.37
UB ubetteruuuuCTR	Overavg 48¢	$288	$285	-$3	48% 215-229 (444)
65 6512395314597884	Underavg 53¢	$212	$206	-$6	51% 5683-5537 (11220)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Overavg 47¢	$188	$194	+$6	50% 2215-2187 (4402)
HE HerdoniaCTR	Overavg 48.3¢	$126.26	$125.25	-$1.01	50% 4154-4225 (8379)
BO BoomLaLaCTR	Overavg 46¢	$119.44	$123.61	+$4.17	53% 14337-12645 (26982)
0X 0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1CTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$24.47	$25.27	+$0.8	46% 942-1120 (2062)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 46.5¢	$16.03	$16.45	+$0.42	52% 27270-24782 (52052)

BreakTheBankCTR

Over

Invested

$12,945.7

Value

$13.2K

PnL

+$275.44

Record

41%

644-941 (1585)

ferrariChampions2026

Under

Invested

$12,338.02

Value

$12.2K

PnL

-$116.4

Record

46%

33409-38908 (72317)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$7,246.15

Value

$7.4K

PnL

+$190.63

Record

54%

19989-16868 (36857)

Both legs:

Over$5,88047¢+$62.55

Under$1,366.1548¢+$128.08

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Over

Invested

$6,590.12

Value

$6.7K

PnL

+$70.12

Record

53%

6644-5935 (12579)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,401.52

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$20.52

Record

48%

70290-75979 (146269)

Both legs:

Over$629.9147.1¢+$27.35

Under$448.8551.7¢-$6.83

Anon455

Under

Invested

$1,060

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$30

Record

54%

3943-3319 (7262)

NM-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$317.2

Value

$309.82

PnL

-$7.38

Record

58%

22563-16669 (39232)

Both legs:

Invested

$288

Value

$285

PnL

-$3

Record

48%

215-229 (444)

6512395314597884

Under

Invested

$212

Value

$206

PnL

-$6

Record

51%

5683-5537 (11220)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Over

Invested

$188

Value

$194

PnL

+$6

Record

50%

2215-2187 (4402)

HerdoniaCTR

Over

Invested

$126.26

Value

$125.25

PnL

-$1.01

Record

50%

4154-4225 (8379)

BoomLaLaCTR

Over

Invested

$119.44

Value

$123.61

PnL

+$4.17

Record

53%

14337-12645 (26982)

0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$24.47

Value

$25.27

PnL

+$0.8

Record

46%

942-1120 (2062)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$16.03

Value

$16.45

PnL

+$0.42

Record

52%

27270-24782 (52052)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 49%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Under 52%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Late

94h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.