Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (76%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Vikings vs. Lions: O/U 44.5

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 24¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 1

Over24¢Under76¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.7K

Combined PnL

-$779.48

Smart Money Entry

54.7¢ → 24¢

-56% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Under 76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over24%

Under76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares9,434

Combined PnL-$778.9

Under3 traders

Total Value$323.05

Total Shares710

Combined PnL-$0.58

Over — 67%Under — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Overavg 54¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$30.29	55% 3014-2443 (5457)
└ Under leg	Underavg 45¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$180.29
└ Over leg	Overavg 54¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$150
JA JAMJAMJAM4CTR	Overavg 55¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$18.18	73% 3602-1329 (4931)
ReformedxCTR	Overavg 55¢	$1.8K	$1.4K	-$429.67	52% 839-788 (1627)
RN1CTR	Overavg 54¢	$1.3K	$989.42	-$329.8	54% 57187-49444 (106631)
SU SunlineTicker	Underavg 46¢	$189.98	$187.92	-$2.06	62% 4201-2576 (6777)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 45¢	$113.49	$114.75	+$1.26	50% 33888-33462 (67350)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Underavg 45¢	$20.16	$20.38	+$0.22	50% 3948-3932 (7880)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$16.94	$15.32	-$1.62	48% 8991-9637 (18628)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 54¢	$5.4	$5.45	+$0.05	56% 14257-11059 (25316)
US User7429CTR<$100	Overavg 42¢	$1.63	$1.96	+$0.33	55% 8417-6766 (15183)

Anon455ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,973.44

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$30.29

Record

55%

3014-2443 (5457)

Both legs:

Under$1,353.4445¢+$180.29

Over$1,62054¢-$150

JAMJAMJAM4CTR

Over

Invested

$1,999.8

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$18.18

Record

73%

3602-1329 (4931)

ReformedxCTR

Over

Invested

$1,817.85

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$429.67

Record

52%

839-788 (1627)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$1,319.22

Value

$989.42

PnL

-$329.8

Record

54%

57187-49444 (106631)

SunlineTicker

Under

Invested

$189.98

Value

$187.92

PnL

-$2.06

Record

62%

4201-2576 (6777)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$113.49

Value

$114.75

PnL

+$1.26

Record

50%

33888-33462 (67350)

NatoAlfista<$100

Under

Invested

$20.16

Value

$20.38

PnL

+$0.22

Record

50%

3948-3932 (7880)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$16.94

Value

$15.32

PnL

-$1.62

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.4

Value

$5.45

PnL

+$0.05

Record

56%

14257-11059 (25316)

User7429CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.63

Value

$1.96

PnL

+$0.33

Record

55%

8417-6766 (15183)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Under 76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance25.9%

24.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$285.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

385.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.