Vikings vs. Packers

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Packers (50%) · Packers at 62¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 15

Vikings39¢Packers61¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Packers

Consensus Traders

Packers 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.2K

Combined PnL

$31.09

Smart Money Entry

61.1¢ → 61.5¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralPackers at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Packers

5 of 10 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Vikings39%

Packers62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Packers5 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares3,809

Combined PnL+$16.58

Vikings5 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares2,505

Combined PnL+$14.51

Packers — 50%Vikings — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Packers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Packers) and the top 1000 (9 on Vikings) disagree here.

whaleVikings 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrVikings 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedPackers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Vikings 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Packersavg 61.1¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$14.46	51% 252-247 (499)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Vikingsavg 37.3¢	$760.71	$590.41	+$12.79	48% 927-1003 (1930)
└ Vikings leg	Vikingsavg 37.3¢	$334.63	$345.42	+$13.26
└ Packers leg	Packersavg 61.4¢	$244.62	$245	-$0.48
PU purplegattoCTR	Vikingsavg 36¢	$358.29	$374.51	+$16.22	69% 2573-1165 (3738)
IC ic4creamCTR	Vikingsavg 39.9¢	$327.6	$311.67	-$15.93	1% 4-440 (444)
RollAwayTheDewARB<$100	Vikingsavg 38¢	$297.48	$296.36	-$1.12	3% 7-227 (234)
└ Vikings leg	Vikingsavg 38¢	$228	$228	+$0
└ Packers leg	Packersavg 62¢	$69.48	$68.36	-$1.12
OD OddstormCTR	Vikingsavg 37.6¢	$208.81	$213.54	+$4.73	15% 16-94 (110)
BA Bayupati	Packersavg 61.5¢	$128.35	$127.36	-$0.99	5% 6-120 (126)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR<$100	Vikingsavg 34¢	$82.79	$92.53	+$9.74	51% 3676-3502 (7178)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Packersavg 61¢	$40.53	$40.87	+$0.33	61% 896-576 (1472)
GH ghorrock<$100	Packersavg 61¢	$37.48	$17.93	+$0.73	53% 335-299 (634)
PA Pan9X<$100	Packersavg 61¢	$33.98	$16.52	+$2.04	49% 435-456 (891)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Vikingsavg 39¢	$9.75	$9.5	-$0.25	68% 1592-742 (2334)

VeryLucky888

Packers

Invested

$2,133.3

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$14.46

Record

51%

252-247 (499)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Vikings

Invested

$760.71

Value

$590.41

PnL

+$12.79

Record

48%

927-1003 (1930)

Both legs:

Vikings$334.6337.3¢+$13.26

Packers$244.6261.4¢-$0.48

purplegattoCTR

Vikings

Invested

$358.29

Value

$374.51

PnL

+$16.22

Record

69%

2573-1165 (3738)

ic4creamCTR

Vikings

Invested

$327.6

Value

$311.67

PnL

-$15.93

Record

4-440 (444)

RollAwayTheDewARB<$100

Vikings

Invested

$297.48

Value

$296.36

PnL

-$1.12

Record

7-227 (234)

Both legs:

Vikings$22838¢+$0

Packers$69.4862¢-$1.12

OddstormCTR

Vikings

Invested

$208.81

Value

$213.54

PnL

+$4.73

Record

15%

16-94 (110)

Bayupati

Packers

Invested

$128.35

Value

$127.36

PnL

-$0.99

Record

6-120 (126)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR<$100

Vikings

Invested

$82.79

Value

$92.53

PnL

+$9.74

Record

51%

3676-3502 (7178)

darkumbreon88<$100

Packers

Invested

$40.53

Value

$40.87

PnL

+$0.33

Record

61%

896-576 (1472)

ghorrock<$100

Packers

Invested

$37.48

Value

$17.93

PnL

+$0.73

Record

53%

335-299 (634)

Pan9X<$100

Packers

Invested

$33.98

Value

$16.52

PnL

+$2.04

Record

49%

435-456 (891)

RLWGCTR<$100

Vikings

Invested

$9.75

Value

$9.5

PnL

-$0.25

Record

68%

1592-742 (2334)

Research grade

NeutralPackers at 62%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Packers

5 of 10 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Packers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Packers) and the top 1000 (9 on Vikings) disagree here.

whaleVikings 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrVikings 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedPackers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Vikings 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Packers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.