Spread: Bengals (-1.5)

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Titans (75%) · Titans at 63¢ · $20K held · ended Nov 1

Bengals38¢Titans62¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Titans

Consensus Traders

Titans 75%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$19.5K

Combined PnL

$545.8

Smart Money Entry

58¢ → 62.5¢

+8% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralTitans at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Titans

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Bengals38%

Titans63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Titans6 traders

Total Value$18.6K

Total Shares29,532

Combined PnL+$536.45

Bengals2 traders

Total Value$372.37

Total Shares1,459

Combined PnL+$9.35

Titans — 75%Bengals — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Nooserac	Titansavg 64¢	$7.3K	$7.3K	+$56.93	52% 5832-5416 (11248)
AN Anon455	Titansavg 76.2¢	$6.1K	$4.9K	$-1.2K	55% 3014-2443 (5457)
TA takeormake	Titansavg 37.5¢	$3.2K	$4.8K	+$1.6K	53% 4278-3736 (8014)
RN1	Titansavg 45¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$25.86	54% 57187-49444 (106631)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Titansavg 63.5¢	$453.31	$375.92	-$77.38	48% 8991-9637 (18628)
└ Titans leg	Titansavg 63.5¢	$317.66	$287.54	-$30.12
└ Bengals leg	Bengalsavg 65.2¢	$135.65	$88.38	-$47.26
SH shoemanhere	Titansavg 63¢	$230.1	$272.1	+$42	56% 7137-5507 (12644)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Bengalsavg 27¢	$210	$198.33	-$11.67	59% 30682-21402 (52084)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Bengalsavg 22.2¢	$153.02	$174.04	+$21.02	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Titansavg 56.1¢	$152.19	$168.58	+$16.38	53% 11037-9631 (20668)
└ Titans leg	Titansavg 56.1¢	$99.04	$115.64	+$16.6
└ Bengals leg	Bengalsavg 34.6¢	$53.15	$52.94	-$0.22
US User7429<$100	Titansavg 63¢	$65.66	$77.65	+$11.99	55% 8417-6766 (15183)

Nooserac

Titans

Invested

$7,287.65

Value

$7.3K

PnL

+$56.93

Record

52%

5832-5416 (11248)

Anon455

Titans

Invested

$6,101.06

Value

$4.9K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

55%

3014-2443 (5457)

takeormake

Titans

Invested

$3,181.47

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

53%

4278-3736 (8014)

RN1

Titans

Invested

$1,211.31

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$25.86

Record

54%

57187-49444 (106631)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Titans

Invested

$453.31

Value

$375.92

PnL

-$77.38

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

Both legs:

Titans$317.6663.5¢-$30.12

Bengals$135.6565.2¢-$47.26

shoemanhere

Titans

Invested

$230.1

Value

$272.1

PnL

+$42

Record

56%

7137-5507 (12644)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Bengals

Invested

$210

Value

$198.33

PnL

-$11.67

Record

59%

30682-21402 (52084)

UpTheBluesCTR

Bengals

Invested

$153.02

Value

$174.04

PnL

+$21.02

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Titans

Invested

$152.19

Value

$168.58

PnL

+$16.38

Record

53%

11037-9631 (20668)

Both legs:

Titans$99.0456.1¢+$16.6

Bengals$53.1534.6¢-$0.22

User7429<$100

Titans

Invested

$65.66

Value

$77.65

PnL

+$11.99

Record

55%

8417-6766 (15183)

Research grade

NeutralTitans at 63%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Titans

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Titans wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.