Commanders vs. Giants

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Giants (50%) · Giants at 56¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 13

Commanders44¢Giants56¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Giants

Consensus Traders

Giants 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.2K

Combined PnL

$52.82

Smart Money Entry

55.9¢ → 56.5¢

+1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralGiants at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Giants

7 of 14 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Commanders44%

Giants56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Giants7 traders

Total Value$8.1K

Total Shares14,371

Combined PnL+$85.15

Commanders7 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares4,222

Combined PnL-$32.33

Giants — 50%Commanders — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Late

51h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Giants. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCommanders 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Giants 50% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Giantsavg 56¢	$5.3K	$5.4K	+$47.41	52% 128-119 (247)
IC ic4cream	Giantsavg 56¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$14.76	1% 4-440 (444)
DA darkumbreon88CTR	Commandersavg 44¢	$618.46	$611.43	-$7.03	61% 899-577 (1476)
LooksMaxxingx	Giantsavg 54¢	$520.32	$539.59	+$19.27	1% 7-629 (636)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Giantsavg 56¢	$449.4	$453.41	+$4.01	49% 488-513 (1001)
38 38791873984189CTR	Commandersavg 45¢	$841.42	$426.79	+$4.08	48% 939-1010 (1949)
0X 0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3CTR	Commandersavg 46¢	$391.49	$374.47	-$17.02	1% 3-362 (365)
OD OddstormCTR	Commandersavg 44.9¢	$233.81	$229.56	-$4.24	15% 16-94 (110)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Giantsavg 54¢	$191.31	$190.98	-$0.32	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
└ Giants leg	Giantsavg 54¢	$99.31	$102.98	+$3.68
└ Commanders leg	Commandersavg 46¢	$92	$88	-$4
SN SnakeBallCTR	Commandersavg 46¢	$185.84	$177.76	-$8.08	47% 149-168 (317)
0X 0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0be<$100	Giantsavg 57¢	$68.79	$68.19	-$0.6	1% 4-314 (318)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Commandersavg 45¢	$71.8	$38.97	-$0.2	49% 440-464 (904)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Giantsavg 56¢	$22.75	$22.75	-$0	50% 1433-1435 (2868)
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR<$100	Commandersavg 43¢	$14.98	$15.16	+$0.17	— 3-6 (9)
RL RLWG<$100	Giantsavg 53¢	$5.3	$5.6	+$0.3	68% 1593-744 (2337)

nigiri99

Giants

Invested

$5,309.92

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$47.41

Record

52%

128-119 (247)

ic4cream

Giants

Invested

$1,653.12

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$14.76

Record

4-440 (444)

darkumbreon88CTR

Commanders

Invested

$618.46

Value

$611.43

PnL

-$7.03

Record

61%

899-577 (1476)

LooksMaxxingx

Giants

Invested

$520.32

Value

$539.59

PnL

+$19.27

Record

7-629 (636)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Giants

Invested

$449.4

Value

$453.41

PnL

+$4.01

Record

49%

488-513 (1001)

38791873984189CTR

Commanders

Invested

$841.42

Value

$426.79

PnL

+$4.08

Record

48%

939-1010 (1949)

0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3CTR

Commanders

Invested

$391.49

Value

$374.47

PnL

-$17.02

Record

3-362 (365)

OddstormCTR

Commanders

Invested

$233.81

Value

$229.56

PnL

-$4.24

Record

15%

16-94 (110)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Giants

Invested

$191.31

Value

$190.98

PnL

-$0.32

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

Both legs:

Giants$99.3154¢+$3.68

Commanders$9246¢-$4

SnakeBallCTR

Commanders

Invested

$185.84

Value

$177.76

PnL

-$8.08

Record

47%

149-168 (317)

0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0be<$100

Giants

Invested

$68.79

Value

$68.19

PnL

-$0.6

Record

4-314 (318)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Commanders

Invested

$71.8

Value

$38.97

PnL

-$0.2

Record

49%

440-464 (904)

Flaznorp<$100

Giants

Invested

$22.75

Value

$22.75

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

1433-1435 (2868)

imjustkenisgheyCTR<$100

Commanders

Invested

$14.98

Value

$15.16

PnL

+$0.17

Record

—

3-6 (9)

RLWG<$100

Giants

Invested

$5.3

Value

$5.6

PnL

+$0.3

Record

68%

1593-744 (2337)

Research grade

NeutralGiants at 56%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Giants

7 of 14 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Late

51h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Giants. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCommanders 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Giants 50% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Giants wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.