Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Jets, while the market favors Devils (57%). 3 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Devils vs. Jets

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Jets (30%) · Jets at 43¢ · $42K held · ends Nov 11

Devils57¢Jets43¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Jets

Consensus Traders

Jets 30%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$41.9K

Combined PnL

-$894.47

Smart Money Entry

43¢ → 42.5¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralJets at 43%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jets

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors Devils 57%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Devils57%

Jets43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jets3 traders

Total Value$36.0K

Total Shares85,772

Combined PnL-$853.4

Devils7 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares8,716

Combined PnL-$41.07

Jets — 30%Devils — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Jets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperJets 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrDevils 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedDevils 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Devils 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SI SineNooneEICTR	Jetsavg 43¢	$36.8K	$35.9K	-$853.45	55% 627-518 (1145)
VeryLucky888	Devilsavg 57.5¢	$2.4K	$2.3K	-$17.52	49% 231-239 (470)
HO HomeRunHazard	Devilsavg 57.3¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$11.27	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Jetsavg 41.5¢	$534.29	$512.5	+$12.23	48% 859-937 (1796)
└ Jets leg	Jetsavg 41.5¢	$388.14	$401.92	+$14.17
└ Devils leg	Devilsavg 58¢	$112.52	$110.58	-$1.94
CO cocococococo	Devilsavg 58¢	$321.88	$316.33	-$5.55	0% 0-30 (30)
0xheavy888ARB<$100	Devilsavg 57.5¢	$312	$312	+$0	55% 106-86 (192)
└ Devils leg	Devilsavg 57.5¢	$230	$228	-$2
└ Jets leg	Jetsavg 41¢	$82	$84	+$2
PA Pan9X	Devilsavg 58.5¢	$138.42	$135.6	-$2.82	48% 421-450 (871)
SE sentrio	Devilsavg 57.7¢	$112.23	$110.92	-$1.31	31% 170-383 (553)
WE westing.v1CTR	Jetsavg 42¢	$101.38	$101.38	+$0	5% 3-62 (65)
PU purplegatto<$100	Devilsavg 58.9¢	$70.68	$68.39	-$2.28	69% 2572-1165 (3737)
GH ghorrockARB<$100	Devilsavg 57.8¢	$72.84	$67.31	+$0.09	53% 323-288 (611)
└ Devils leg	Devilsavg 57.8¢	$44.5	$43.89	-$0.61
└ Jets leg	Jetsavg 40.8¢	$22.75	$23.42	+$0.7
nigiri99<$100	Devilsavg 59¢	$9.44	$9.12	-$0.32	52% 125-115 (240)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Jetsavg 41¢	$2.05	$2.1	+$0.05	24% 157-504 (661)

SineNooneEICTR

Jets

Invested

$36,774.26

Value

$35.9K

PnL

-$853.45

Record

55%

627-518 (1145)

VeryLucky888

Devils

Invested

$2,401.68

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$17.52

Record

49%

231-239 (470)

HomeRunHazard

Devils

Invested

$2,085.79

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$11.27

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Jets

Invested

$534.29

Value

$512.5

PnL

+$12.23

Record

48%

859-937 (1796)

Both legs:

Jets$388.1441.5¢+$14.17

Devils$112.5258¢-$1.94

cocococococo

Devils

Invested

$321.88

Value

$316.33

PnL

-$5.55

Record

0-30 (30)

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Devils

Invested

$312

Value

$312

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

106-86 (192)

Both legs:

Invested

$138.42

Value

$135.6

PnL

-$2.82

Record

48%

421-450 (871)

sentrio

Devils

Invested

$112.23

Value

$110.92

PnL

-$1.31

Record

31%

170-383 (553)

westing.v1CTR

Jets

Invested

$101.38

Value

$101.38

PnL

+$0

Record

3-62 (65)

purplegatto<$100

Devils

Invested

$70.68

Value

$68.39

PnL

-$2.28

Record

69%

2572-1165 (3737)

ghorrockARB<$100

Devils

Invested

$72.84

Value

$67.31

PnL

+$0.09

Record

53%

323-288 (611)

Both legs:

Devils$44.557.8¢-$0.61

Jets$22.7540.8¢+$0.7

nigiri99<$100

Devils

Invested

$9.44

Value

$9.12

PnL

-$0.32

Record

52%

125-115 (240)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Jets

Invested

$2.05

Value

$2.1

PnL

+$0.05

Record

24%

157-504 (661)

Research grade

NeutralJets at 43%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Jets

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors Devils 57%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Jets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperJets 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrDevils 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedDevils 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Devils 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.7%

42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$123.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

223.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.