Flyers vs. Rangers: O/U 6.5

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (62%) · Under at 95¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 6

Over5¢Under95¢Ended Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 62%

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

$83.95

Smart Money Entry

62.7¢ → 95¢

+51% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over5%

Under95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares5,567

Combined PnL-$51.76

Over5 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,939

Combined PnL+$135.71

Under — 62%Over — 38%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GA GamblingOdyssey	Underavg 56¢	$2.2K	$2.0K	-$156	51% 918-877 (1795)
nigiri99CTR	Overavg 45.2¢	$932.68	$989.76	+$57.08	46% 8596-10247 (18843)
RN1	Underavg 80¢	$543.2	$645.05	+$101.85	53% 61400-53704 (115104)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 100¢	$446.76	$425.93	-$20.83	48% 61256-66065 (127321)
NO NordhavenCapCTR	Overavg 34.9¢	$125.99	$173.16	+$47.17	57% 2431-1816 (4247)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 43¢	$139.15	$155.33	+$16.18	54% 18232-15346 (33578)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 56¢	$132.01	$106.08	-$25.93	51% 37681-36912 (74593)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Underavg 55¢	$63.92	$87.17	+$23.25	46% 1548-1827 (3375)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 61.9¢	$49.93	$74.66	+$24.72	47% 11750-13484 (25234)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Overavg 29¢	$39.32	$65.06	+$25.74	53% 12169-10675 (22844)
PA Pan9X	Underavg 65.9¢	$102.36	$63.8	+$5.43	54% 9751-8144 (17895)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 35.8¢	$35.62	$25.16	-$10.46	51% 25823-24512 (50335)
LR lryyy<$100	Underavg 67¢	$19	$14.74	-$4.25	47% 9385-10517 (19902)

GamblingOdyssey

Under

Invested

$2,183.99

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$156

Record

51%

918-877 (1795)

nigiri99CTR

Over

Invested

$932.68

Value

$989.76

PnL

+$57.08

Record

46%

8596-10247 (18843)

RN1

Under

Invested

$543.2

Value

$645.05

PnL

+$101.85

Record

53%

61400-53704 (115104)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$446.76

Value

$425.93

PnL

-$20.83

Record

48%

61256-66065 (127321)

NordhavenCapCTR

Over

Invested

$125.99

Value

$173.16

PnL

+$47.17

Record

57%

2431-1816 (4247)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$139.15

Value

$155.33

PnL

+$16.18

Record

54%

18232-15346 (33578)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$132.01

Value

$106.08

PnL

-$25.93

Record

51%

37681-36912 (74593)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Under

Invested

$63.92

Value

$87.17

PnL

+$23.25

Record

46%

1548-1827 (3375)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$49.93

Value

$74.66

PnL

+$24.72

Record

47%

11750-13484 (25234)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$39.32

Value

$65.06

PnL

+$25.74

Record

53%

12169-10675 (22844)

Pan9X

Under

Invested

$102.36

Value

$63.8

PnL

+$5.43

Record

54%

9751-8144 (17895)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$35.62

Value

$25.16

PnL

-$10.46

Record

51%

25823-24512 (50335)

lryyy<$100

Under

Invested

$19

Value

$14.74

PnL

-$4.25

Record

47%

9385-10517 (19902)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 95%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.2%

95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.