Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (74%). 4 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Capitals vs. Senators: O/U 6.5

4 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 27¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 11

Over27¢Under73¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 33%

Total Value

$5.3K

Combined PnL

$-1.0K

Smart Money Entry

47.5¢ → 26.5¢

-44% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 12 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Under 74%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over27%

Under74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares12,551

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Under8 traders

Total Value$418.39

Total Shares684

Combined PnL+$44.39

Over — 33%Under — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO royalestakeCTR	Overavg 47.4¢	$4.1K	$3.4K	-$721.25	1% 2-178 (180)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 48¢	$1.7K	$1.3K	-$310.12	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 52¢	$216.84	$250.2	+$33.36	48% 949-1019 (1968)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Overavg 48¢	$192	$156	-$36	10% 88-785 (873)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Underavg 56.2¢	$73.34	$79.05	+$5.71	50% 1504-1508 (3012)
0xheavy888<$100	Underavg 52¢	$26	$30	+$4	55% 120-97 (217)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 60.9¢	$26.51	$26.53	+$0.02	49% 444-470 (914)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Overavg 38.5¢	$30.93	$21.3	-$9.63	30% 134-317 (451)
MU Multicoloured-Serf<$100	Underavg 64.2¢	$16.05	$15.25	-$0.8	47% 500-558 (1058)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 52¢	$8.11	$9.35	+$1.25	34% 233-457 (690)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Underavg 59¢	$4.55	$5	+$0.45	54% 1657-1434 (3091)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 52¢	$2.6	$3	+$0.4	26% 181-519 (700)

royalestakeCTR

Over

Invested

$4,085

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$721.25

Record

2-178 (180)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$1,654

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$310.12

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$216.84

Value

$250.2

PnL

+$33.36

Record

48%

949-1019 (1968)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Over

Invested

$192

Value

$156

PnL

-$36

Record

10%

88-785 (873)

Flaznorp<$100

Under

Invested

$73.34

Value

$79.05

PnL

+$5.71

Record

50%

1504-1508 (3012)

0xheavy888<$100

Under

Invested

$26

Value

$30

PnL

+$4

Record

55%

120-97 (217)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$26.51

Value

$26.53

PnL

+$0.02

Record

49%

444-470 (914)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$30.93

Value

$21.3

PnL

-$9.63

Record

30%

134-317 (451)

Multicoloured-Serf<$100

Under

Invested

$16.05

Value

$15.25

PnL

-$0.8

Record

47%

500-558 (1058)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$8.11

Value

$9.35

PnL

+$1.25

Record

34%

233-457 (690)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Under

Invested

$4.55

Value

PnL

+$0.45

Record

54%

1657-1434 (3091)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$2.6

Value

PnL

+$0.4

Record

26%

181-519 (700)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 12 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Under 74%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance28.5%

26.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$250.92

Max Loss

-$100.00

350.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.