Club Universitario de Deportes vs. CD Moquegua: O/U 2.5

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (55%) · Over at 61¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 9

Over61¢Under39¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 55%

Total Value

$7.0K

Combined PnL

$132.68

Smart Money Entry

56.8¢ → 60.5¢

+7% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over61%

Under40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$5.7K

Total Shares8,509

Combined PnL+$542.2

Under5 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares3,721

Combined PnL-$409.52

Over — 55%Under — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 56¢	$2.6K	$2.9K	+$358.28	52% 47368-44608 (91976)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 56.8¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$85.94	50% 32582-32710 (65292)
RN1	Overavg 57.9¢	$995.69	$1.1K	+$96.31	53% 70249-61821 (132070)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 42¢	$856.6	$693.44	-$163.16	47% 2189-2445 (4634)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Underavg 50¢	$761	$517.48	-$243.52	50% 23496-23498 (46994)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Overavg 60.8¢	$242.88	$241.62	-$1.26	50% 2217-2191 (4408)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 40.6¢	$50.94	$49.51	-$1.44	50% 27970-27422 (55392)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Overavg 46¢	$8.11	$11.19	+$3.08	46% 30580-35679 (66259)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 42¢	$8.4	$8.5	+$0.1	47% 2148-2414 (4562)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Overavg 61¢	$8.02	$7.88	-$0.15	52% 9525-8636 (18161)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$6.71	$5.21	-$1.5	50% 48622-48197 (96819)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$2,568.68

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$358.28

Record

52%

47368-44608 (91976)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$1,331.75

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$85.94

Record

50%

32582-32710 (65292)

RN1

Over

Invested

$995.69

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$96.31

Record

53%

70249-61821 (132070)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$856.6

Value

$693.44

PnL

-$163.16

Record

47%

2189-2445 (4634)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Under

Invested

$761

Value

$517.48

PnL

-$243.52

Record

50%

23496-23498 (46994)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Over

Invested

$242.88

Value

$241.62

PnL

-$1.26

Record

50%

2217-2191 (4408)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$50.94

Value

$49.51

PnL

-$1.44

Record

50%

27970-27422 (55392)

LuckyLoo<$100

Over

Invested

$8.11

Value

$11.19

PnL

+$3.08

Record

46%

30580-35679 (66259)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.4

Value

$8.5

PnL

+$0.1

Record

47%

2148-2414 (4562)

ameisgoat11<$100

Over

Invested

$8.02

Value

$7.88

PnL

-$0.15

Record

52%

9525-8636 (18161)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.71

Value

$5.21

PnL

-$1.5

Record

50%

48622-48197 (96819)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 61%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.