Will Vitória SC win on 2026-11-08?

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 96¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 8

Yes4¢No96¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.4K

Combined PnL

-$326.12

Smart Money Entry

93.3¢ → 96¢

+3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 14 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares3,875

Combined PnL-$222.27

Yes7 traders

Total Value$357.36

Total Shares3,399

Combined PnL-$103.85

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 93.8¢	$2.6K	$2.3K	-$252.69	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
VE Venusian	Noavg 95¢	$635.38	$645.47	+$10.08	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 87.7¢	$364.51	$357.88	+$6.37	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
OM omnibus-076daa	Noavg 96¢	$218.31	$219.45	+$1.14	50% 23433-23429 (46862)
RN1ARB<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$320.62	$213.6	-$107.02	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
└ No leg	Noavg 96¢	$128.49	$129.16	+$0.67
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 8¢	$192.14	$84.45	-$107.69
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 14¢	$176.33	$170.24	-$6.09	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
WA WagerWizard	Noavg 94.4¢	$150.99	$154.39	+$3.4	71% 18400-7571 (25971)
PA Pan9X	Noavg 86.2¢	$170.69	$125.03	+$7.93	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.2¢	$88.45	$88.47	+$0.01	57% 22329-16593 (38922)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.3¢	$58.84	$60.93	+$2.09	57% 22219-16567 (38786)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$66.98	$17.99	-$48.99	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 13.6¢	$68.73	$17.72	-$51.01	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 86¢	$12.29	$13.79	+$1.5	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$6.97	$1.35	+$0.11	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$0.65	$0.67	+$0.02	51% 27916-27361 (55277)

Flaznorp

Invested

$2,593.89

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$252.69

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

Venusian

Invested

$635.38

Value

$645.47

PnL

+$10.08

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

38791873984189

Invested

$364.51

Value

$357.88

PnL

+$6.37

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

omnibus-076daa

Invested

$218.31

Value

$219.45

PnL

+$1.14

Record

50%

23433-23429 (46862)

RN1ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$320.62

Value

$213.6

PnL

-$107.02

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

Both legs:

Invested

$176.33

Value

$170.24

PnL

-$6.09

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

WagerWizard

Invested

$150.99

Value

$154.39

PnL

+$3.4

Record

71%

18400-7571 (25971)

Pan9X

Invested

$170.69

Value

$125.03

PnL

+$7.93

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

NM-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$88.45

Value

$88.47

PnL

+$0.01

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

GC-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$58.84

Value

$60.93

PnL

+$2.09

Record

57%

22219-16567 (38786)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$66.98

Value

$17.99

PnL

-$48.99

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$68.73

Value

$17.72

PnL

-$51.01

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$12.29

Value

$13.79

PnL

+$1.5

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.97

Value

$1.35

PnL

+$0.11

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.65

Value

$0.67

PnL

+$0.02

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 14 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.1%

96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.