Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (77%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?
7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (70%) · Yes at 23¢ · $7K held · ends Feb 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
10
Yes 70%
$7.0K
-$745.95
23¢ → 23¢
+0% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 23%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors No 77%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 69%
Freshness
Late
1136h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
70% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 smellyEllieCTR | Yesavg 22.8¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | +$60.19 | 50% 970-988 (1958) |
88 881112 | Noavg 74.7¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$36.76 | 38% 567-944 (1511) |
 GollumGekkoCTR | Yesavg 20.8¢ | $1.2K | $1.4K | +$159.48 | 68% 2074-958 (3032) |
 CarCTR | Yesavg 26.8¢ | $6.1K | $725.36 | $-1.0K | 67% 4165-2026 (6191) |
KR KrackenSruster | Noavg 72.4¢ | $578.99 | $611.99 | +$33 | 66% 487-255 (742) |
 KnureKnumeCTR | Yesavg 23.4¢ | $527.17 | $536.68 | +$9.51 | 48% 400-435 (835) |
 PorxCTR | Yesavg 22.4¢ | $176.3 | $184.89 | +$8.59 | 66% 1482-769 (2251) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 75.3¢ | $40.62 | $40.55 | -$0.07 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
LI lissartterCTR<$100 | Yesavg 32.1¢ | $52.85 | $38.47 | -$14.38 | 42% 5284-7234 (12518) |
ME melonmanmCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27¢ | $0.51 | $0.43 | -$0.07 | 65% 527-282 (809) |
smellyEllieCTRInvested
$1,893.41
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$60.19
Record
50%
970-988 (1958)
Invested
$1,512.19
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$36.76
Record
38%
567-944 (1511)
GollumGekkoCTRInvested
$1,200.68
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$159.48
Record
68%
2074-958 (3032)
CarCTRInvested
$6,127.17
Value
$725.36
PnL
$-1.0K
Record
67%
4165-2026 (6191)
Invested
$578.99
Value
$611.99
PnL
+$33
Record
66%
487-255 (742)
KnureKnumeCTRInvested
$527.17
Value
$536.68
PnL
+$9.51
Record
48%
400-435 (835)
PorxCTRInvested
$176.3
Value
$184.89
PnL
+$8.59
Record
66%
1482-769 (2251)
Invested
$40.62
Value
$40.55
PnL
-$0.07
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
Invested
$52.85
Value
$38.47
PnL
-$14.38
Record
42%
5284-7234 (12518)
Invested
$0.51
Value
$0.43
PnL
-$0.07
Record
65%
527-282 (809)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
23.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.