Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (53%). 3 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (30%) · No at 48¢ · $12K held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes53¢No47¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 30%

Total Value

$12.1K

Combined PnL

$231.21

Smart Money Entry

45.9¢ → 47.5¢

+4% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 53%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes53%

No48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$9.5K

Total Shares20,002

Combined PnL+$330.74

Yes7 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares4,900

Combined PnL-$99.53

No — 30%Yes — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

1412h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

17 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Diverging

sharpYes 75% · 4

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 63% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 100% · 4

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
siickCTR	Noavg 45¢	$5.3K	$5.6K	+$291.33	57% 768-580 (1348)
SirHarryOakesCTR	Noavg 48.9¢	$3.1K	$3.0K	-$90.57	84% 215-41 (256)
JO JoeBlack01CTR	Noavg 40.6¢	$764	$893.97	+$129.98	60% 474-313 (787)
88 881112	Yesavg 46.7¢	$700.9	$787.49	+$86.59	38% 567-944 (1511)
KU kukubaja	Yesavg 63.2¢	$632.33	$525	-$107.33	84% 516-99 (615)
PaddyAlpha	Yesavg 53.3¢	$448.36	$457.69	+$9.32	59% 986-684 (1670)
StupidMonkeyyy	Yesavg 53.8¢	$332.59	$324.26	-$8.33	50% 147-145 (292)
NO nonkenny90	Yesavg 70¢	$395.3	$296.63	-$98.67	89% 4653-547 (5200)
HO hopedieslast	Yesavg 45¢	$120.35	$140.41	+$20.06	59% 118-81 (199)
SE SeniorLaghetto<$100	Yesavg 54¢	$42.12	$40.95	-$1.17	69% 404-180 (584)

siickCTR

Invested

$5,325.93

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$291.33

Record

57%

768-580 (1348)

SirHarryOakesCTR

Invested

$3,080.45

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$90.57

Record

84%

215-41 (256)

JoeBlack01CTR

Invested

$764

Value

$893.97

PnL

+$129.98

Record

60%

474-313 (787)

881112

Yes

Invested

$700.9

Value

$787.49

PnL

+$86.59

Record

38%

567-944 (1511)

kukubaja

Yes

Invested

$632.33

Value

$525

PnL

-$107.33

Record

84%

516-99 (615)

PaddyAlpha

Yes

Invested

$448.36

Value

$457.69

PnL

+$9.32

Record

59%

986-684 (1670)

StupidMonkeyyy

Yes

Invested

$332.59

Value

$324.26

PnL

-$8.33

Record

50%

147-145 (292)

nonkenny90

Yes

Invested

$395.3

Value

$296.63

PnL

-$98.67

Record

89%

4653-547 (5200)

hopedieslast

Yes

Invested

$120.35

Value

$140.41

PnL

+$20.06

Record

59%

118-81 (199)

SeniorLaghetto<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.12

Value

$40.95

PnL

-$1.17

Record

69%

404-180 (584)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 48%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 53%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

1412h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

17 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Diverging

sharpYes 75% · 4

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 63% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 100% · 4

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.5%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$106.19

Max Loss

-$100.00

206.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.