Will Al Fateh Saudi Club win on 2026-11-06?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 99¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 6

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

-$882.06

Smart Money Entry

86.7¢ → 98.7¢

+14% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares2,913

Combined PnL+$340.59

Yes4 traders

Total Value$110.91

Total Shares7,020

Combined PnL$-1.2K

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-19 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Mature

44h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU lukibazdonauki754	Noavg 92.2¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$74.64	61% 928-599 (1527)
RO roscoff	Noavg 80¢	$596.97	$734.27	+$137.3	51% 174-169 (343)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 77.3¢	$452.36	$573.46	+$121.1	53% 23051-20286 (43337)
E4 e46m3	Noavg 98.6¢	$255.89	$256.04	+$0.15	72% 14170-5468 (19638)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702	Noavg 88.6¢	$122.68	$70.47	+$7.18	41% 1144-1648 (2792)
xxNyx<$100	Noavg 98¢	$53.87	$53.01	+$0.22	82% 1809-404 (2213)
38 38791873984189CTR	Yesavg 14.5¢	$307.49	$40.79	-$266.7	48% 60543-65164 (125707)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Yesavg 25.1¢	$566.61	$39.84	-$526.77	50% 21060-21316 (42376)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 31.1¢	$1.4K	$22.62	-$417.54	58% 46176-33333 (79509)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.4¢	$19.3	$7.65	-$11.65	20% 2762-10914 (13676)

lukibazdonauki754

Invested

$1,197.17

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$74.64

Record

61%

928-599 (1527)

roscoff

Invested

$596.97

Value

$734.27

PnL

+$137.3

Record

51%

174-169 (343)

cigarettes

Invested

$452.36

Value

$573.46

PnL

+$121.1

Record

53%

23051-20286 (43337)

e46m3

Invested

$255.89

Value

$256.04

PnL

+$0.15

Record

72%

14170-5468 (19638)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702

Invested

$122.68

Value

$70.47

PnL

+$7.18

Record

41%

1144-1648 (2792)

xxNyx<$100

Invested

$53.87

Value

$53.01

PnL

+$0.22

Record

82%

1809-404 (2213)

38791873984189CTR

Yes

Invested

$307.49

Value

$40.79

PnL

-$266.7

Record

48%

60543-65164 (125707)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Yes

Invested

$566.61

Value

$39.84

PnL

-$526.77

Record

50%

21060-21316 (42376)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,439.05

Value

$22.62

PnL

-$417.54

Record

58%

46176-33333 (79509)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.3

Value

$7.65

PnL

-$11.65

Record

20%

2762-10914 (13676)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-19 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Mature

44h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.7%

98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.