FK Radnicki Nis vs. FK Zeleznicar Pancevo: O/U 0.5

3 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (25%) · Under at 51¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 2

Over50¢Under50¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 25%

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

$498.72

Smart Money Entry

63.4¢ → 50.5¢

-20% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 12 top traders (25%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over9 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares3,204

Combined PnL+$1.7K

Under3 traders

Total Value$281.42

Total Shares2,277

Combined PnL$-1.2K

Over — 75%Under — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU lukibazdonauki754CTR	Overavg 39¢	$769.19	$1.7K	+$900.66	60% 894-585 (1479)
0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb20dF121CTR	Overavg 36.1¢	$456.4	$544.42	+$415.53	82% 71-16 (87)
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000	Underavg 63.7¢	$1.4K	$232.71	$-1.2K	42% 2304-3135 (5439)
alpheclabs2CTR	Overavg 28.1¢	$65.12	$207.64	+$142.52	49% 102-105 (207)
LR lryyyCTR	Overavg 39.5¢	$85.14	$159.83	+$74.69	46% 7945-9276 (17221)
CI cigarettesCTR	Overavg 37¢	$48.89	$118.25	+$69.37	54% 21609-18647 (40256)
0X 0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70CTR<$100	Overavg 40¢	$40.67	$90.99	+$50.32	75% 107-36 (143)
RE retarbCTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$28.5	$51.02	+$22.52	48% 4277-4581 (8858)
poshposh<$100	Underavg 65.4¢	$49.94	$47.29	-$2.65	58% 11459-8313 (19772)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 92¢	$32.31	$31.47	-$0.84	51% 17638-16634 (34272)
US User7429CTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$6.05	$10.83	+$4.78	55% 8536-6853 (15389)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Underavg 7¢	$0.94	$1.41	+$0.47	46% 9230-10950 (20180)

lukibazdonauki754CTR

Over

Invested

$769.19

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$900.66

Record

60%

894-585 (1479)

0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb20dF121CTR

Over

Invested

$456.4

Value

$544.42

PnL

+$415.53

Record

82%

71-16 (87)

0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000

Under

Invested

$1,411.37

Value

$232.71

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

42%

2304-3135 (5439)

alpheclabs2CTR

Over

Invested

$65.12

Value

$207.64

PnL

+$142.52

Record

49%

102-105 (207)

lryyyCTR

Over

Invested

$85.14

Value

$159.83

PnL

+$74.69

Record

46%

7945-9276 (17221)

cigarettesCTR

Over

Invested

$48.89

Value

$118.25

PnL

+$69.37

Record

54%

21609-18647 (40256)

0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$40.67

Value

$90.99

PnL

+$50.32

Record

75%

107-36 (143)

retarbCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$28.5

Value

$51.02

PnL

+$22.52

Record

48%

4277-4581 (8858)

poshposh<$100

Under

Invested

$49.94

Value

$47.29

PnL

-$2.65

Record

58%

11459-8313 (19772)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$32.31

Value

$31.47

PnL

-$0.84

Record

51%

17638-16634 (34272)

User7429CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.05

Value

$10.83

PnL

+$4.78

Record

55%

8536-6853 (15389)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Under

Invested

$0.94

Value

$1.41

PnL

+$0.47

Record

46%

9230-10950 (20180)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 51%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 12 top traders (25%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.