IFK Varnamo vs. IFK Norrkoping FK: Both Teams to Score

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (36%) · Yes at 68¢ · $488 held · ended Nov 7

Yes68¢No32¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 36%

Total Value

$488.49

Combined PnL

-$1.57

Smart Money Entry

66.9¢ → 68¢

+2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes68%

No32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$349.01

Total Shares468

Combined PnL+$6.61

No7 traders

Total Value$139.48

Total Shares440

Combined PnL-$8.18

Yes — 36%No — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-35 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (9 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 66¢	$218.27	$225.27	+$7	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 68.5¢	$136.98	$116.94	-$0.44	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Noavg 34¢	$94.08	$88.55	-$5.53	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Noavg 33.1¢	$18.83	$17.64	-$1.19	48% 1775-1911 (3686)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Noavg 31.6¢	$41.66	$13.33	+$0.14	50% 1850-1863 (3713)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Noavg 33.1¢	$10.11	$9.47	-$0.64	49% 1843-1935 (3778)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Noavg 32¢	$4.8	$4.65	-$0.15	55% 1426-1175 (2601)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Noavg 36.1¢	$5	$4.29	-$0.71	50% 21550-21844 (43394)
SE sentrio<$100	Yesavg 65¢	$3.25	$3.4	+$0.05	50% 26409-26025 (52434)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Yesavg 68¢	$3.4	$3.4	-$0	53% 2699-2381 (5080)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 33¢	$1.65	$1.55	-$0.1	49% 14983-15895 (30878)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$218.27

Value

$225.27

PnL

+$7

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$136.98

Value

$116.94

PnL

-$0.44

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Invested

$94.08

Value

$88.55

PnL

-$5.53

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Invested

$18.83

Value

$17.64

PnL

-$1.19

Record

48%

1775-1911 (3686)

LimousinCTR<$100

Invested

$41.66

Value

$13.33

PnL

+$0.14

Record

50%

1850-1863 (3713)

VenusianCTR<$100

Invested

$10.11

Value

$9.47

PnL

-$0.64

Record

49%

1843-1935 (3778)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Invested

$4.8

Value

$4.65

PnL

-$0.15

Record

55%

1426-1175 (2601)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Invested

Value

$4.29

PnL

-$0.71

Record

50%

21550-21844 (43394)

sentrio<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.25

Value

$3.4

PnL

+$0.05

Record

50%

26409-26025 (52434)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.4

Value

$3.4

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

2699-2381 (5080)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$1.65

Value

$1.55

PnL

-$0.1

Record

49%

14983-15895 (30878)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 68%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-35 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (9 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Diverging

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.1%

68.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$42.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

142.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.