Will Bursaspor win on 2026-11-06?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 60¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 6

Yes41¢No59¢Ended Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 89%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.2K

Combined PnL

$284.61

Smart Money Entry

48.1¢ → 59.5¢

+24% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes41%

No60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares6,066

Combined PnL+$280.81

Yes1 trader

Total Value$226.45

Total Shares300

Combined PnL+$3.8

No — 89%Yes — 11%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Noavg 52.4¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$112.42	53% 61769-54057 (115826)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 46.4¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$166.83	51% 26324-24949 (51273)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Yesavg 50.5¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$3.57	50% 28611-28439 (57050)
└ No leg	Noavg 47.5¢	$539.59	$669.62	+$130.03
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 50.5¢	$672.93	$546.47	-$126.46
NO Notradecopy	Noavg 39¢	$500	$551.28	+$51.28	48% 4037-4322 (8359)
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000	Noavg 61.2¢	$362	$348.99	-$13.01	42% 2461-3356 (5817)
CI cigarettesCTR	Yesavg 71¢	$222.65	$226.45	+$3.8	53% 23826-20970 (44796)
dips.ARB<$100	Noavg 45.2¢	$72.81	$80.08	+$7.27	47% 10793-12352 (23145)
└ No leg	Noavg 45.2¢	$41.16	$49.6	+$8.43
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 47.2¢	$31.65	$30.49	-$1.17
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 44.1¢	$51.46	$63.9	+$12.44	50% 26097-25756 (51853)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 45.1¢	$92.69	$43.16	-$49.53	51% 6444-6225 (12669)
GC GC-P<$100	Noavg 49¢	$20.46	$20.67	+$0.21	64% 10093-5697 (15790)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Noavg 42¢	$7.2	$7.37	+$0.17	53% 2617-2311 (4928)

RN1

Invested

$1,278.61

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$112.42

Record

53%

61769-54057 (115826)

Flaznorp

Invested

$1,126.25

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$166.83

Record

51%

26324-24949 (51273)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,212.52

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$3.57

Record

50%

28611-28439 (57050)

Both legs:

No$539.5947.5¢+$130.03

Yes$672.9350.5¢-$126.46

Notradecopy

Invested

$500

Value

$551.28

PnL

+$51.28

Record

48%

4037-4322 (8359)

0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000

Invested

$362

Value

$348.99

PnL

-$13.01

Record

42%

2461-3356 (5817)

cigarettesCTR

Yes

Invested

$222.65

Value

$226.45

PnL

+$3.8

Record

53%

23826-20970 (44796)

dips.ARB<$100

Invested

$72.81

Value

$80.08

PnL

+$7.27

Record

47%

10793-12352 (23145)

Both legs:

No$41.1645.2¢+$8.43

Yes$31.6547.2¢-$1.17

sentrio<$100

Invested

$51.46

Value

$63.9

PnL

+$12.44

Record

50%

26097-25756 (51853)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$92.69

Value

$43.16

PnL

-$49.53

Record

51%

6444-6225 (12669)

GC-P<$100

Invested

$20.46

Value

$20.67

PnL

+$0.21

Record

64%

10093-5697 (15790)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Invested

$7.2

Value

$7.37

PnL

+$0.17

Record

53%

2617-2311 (4928)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 60%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.