Will Umraniyespor win on 2026-10-14?

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (30%) · No at 82¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 14

Yes18¢No82¢Ended Wed, Oct 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 30%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

$269.52

Smart Money Entry

57.4¢ → 81.8¢

+43% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 10 top traders (30%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes18%

No82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares3,395

Combined PnL+$672.47

Yes7 traders

Total Value$409.89

Total Shares1,774

Combined PnL-$402.95

No — 30%Yes — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

504h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 60% · 5

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 70% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 63.2¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$230.09	51% 24202-22938 (47140)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 50.2¢	$794.2	$1.2K	+$432.58	58% 50265-36309 (86574)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 43.3¢	$632.2	$298.73	-$328.88	50% 27765-27628 (55393)
RN1ARB<$100	Yesavg 36.2¢	$83.68	$71.62	-$12.06	53% 60045-52422 (112467)
└ No leg	Noavg 42.6¢	$20.89	$40.2	+$19.31
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 36.2¢	$62.79	$31.42	-$31.37
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 38.5¢	$66.44	$41.64	-$24.81	47% 11065-12394 (23459)
YO youcanbuythisbotCTR<$100	Yesavg 29.6¢	$92.75	$33.2	-$2.26	64% 8672-4799 (13471)
NM NM-P<$100	Noavg 31.4¢	$14.85	$24.65	+$9.8	46% 1301-1520 (2821)
DI dips.CTR<$100	Yesavg 36.9¢	$35.52	$17.42	-$18.19	47% 10348-11772 (22120)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 65.8¢	$36.19	$9.96	-$26.07	50% 20715-20970 (41685)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$6.97	$5.73	-$1.24	51% 6273-6027 (12300)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$4.78	$3.21	-$1.51	49% 14322-14999 (29321)

Flaznorp

Invested

$1,486.53

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$230.09

Record

51%

24202-22938 (47140)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$794.2

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$432.58

Record

58%

50265-36309 (86574)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$632.2

Value

$298.73

PnL

-$328.88

Record

50%

27765-27628 (55393)

RN1ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$83.68

Value

$71.62

PnL

-$12.06

Record

53%

60045-52422 (112467)

Both legs:

No$20.8942.6¢+$19.31

Yes$62.7936.2¢-$31.37

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$66.44

Value

$41.64

PnL

-$24.81

Record

47%

11065-12394 (23459)

youcanbuythisbotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$92.75

Value

$33.2

PnL

-$2.26

Record

64%

8672-4799 (13471)

NM-P<$100

Invested

$14.85

Value

$24.65

PnL

+$9.8

Record

46%

1301-1520 (2821)

dips.CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.52

Value

$17.42

PnL

-$18.19

Record

47%

10348-11772 (22120)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.19

Value

$9.96

PnL

-$26.07

Record

50%

20715-20970 (41685)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.97

Value

$5.73

PnL

-$1.24

Record

51%

6273-6027 (12300)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.78

Value

$3.21

PnL

-$1.51

Record

49%

14322-14999 (29321)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 10 top traders (30%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

504h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 60% · 5

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 70% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.5%

81.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$19.81

Max Loss

-$100.00

119.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.