Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (94%). 12 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will SK Slavia Praha win on 2026-11-04?

12 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 6.5¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 4

Yes7¢No93¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

$120.66

Smart Money Entry

6.6¢ → 6.5¢

-2% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 12 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 94%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes12 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares34,378

Combined PnL+$120.66

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Mature

33h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 7.1¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$9.95	51% 24202-22938 (47140)
FO forecastication4CTR	Yesavg 6¢	$637.08	$743.26	+$106.18	50% 1337-1356 (2693)
CA CannaeARB<$100	Yesavg 6.2¢	$689.52	$714.76	+$25.24	53% 16515-14663 (31178)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 6.2¢	$474.29	$496.02	+$21.73
└ No leg	Noavg 92¢	$215.23	$218.74	+$3.51
GC GC-PARB<$100	Noavg 91¢	$311.44	$290.75	+$1.04	39% 1335-2099 (3434)
└ No leg	Noavg 91¢	$219.71	$225.75	+$6.04
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 7¢	$70	$65	-$5
38 38791873984189CTR	Yesavg 6.7¢	$185.08	$192.73	-$6.11	48% 59224-63218 (122442)
NM NM-PCTR	Yesavg 6.5¢	$121	$120.25	-$0.75	46% 1301-1520 (2821)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 6¢	$599.13	$105.01	+$31.27	58% 45420-32909 (78329)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$84	$98	+$7	50% 27765-27628 (55393)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.3¢	$53.53	$51.58	-$1.96	51% 7648-7364 (15012)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Yesavg 7.3¢	$14.58	$13.93	-$0.65	46% 8405-9865 (18270)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.8¢	$14.79	$11.74	-$3.05	71% 7095-2847 (9942)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.5¢	$10.25	$11.05	+$0.79	58% 19424-14279 (33703)
DV dv-pmCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$7.38	$5.33	-$2.05	49% 3292-3422 (6714)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.3¢	$1.13	$1.08	-$0.08	50% 20715-20970 (41685)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,057.48

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$9.95

Record

51%

24202-22938 (47140)

forecastication4CTR

Yes

Invested

$637.08

Value

$743.26

PnL

+$106.18

Record

50%

1337-1356 (2693)

CannaeARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$689.52

Value

$714.76

PnL

+$25.24

Record

53%

16515-14663 (31178)

Both legs:

Yes$474.296.2¢+$21.73

No$215.2392¢+$3.51

GC-PARB<$100

Invested

$311.44

Value

$290.75

PnL

+$1.04

Record

39%

1335-2099 (3434)

Both legs:

Invested

$185.08

Value

$192.73

PnL

-$6.11

Record

48%

59224-63218 (122442)

NM-PCTR

Yes

Invested

$121

Value

$120.25

PnL

-$0.75

Record

46%

1301-1520 (2821)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$599.13

Value

$105.01

PnL

+$31.27

Record

58%

45420-32909 (78329)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$84

Value

$98

PnL

+$7

Record

50%

27765-27628 (55393)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$53.53

Value

$51.58

PnL

-$1.96

Record

51%

7648-7364 (15012)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.58

Value

$13.93

PnL

-$0.65

Record

46%

8405-9865 (18270)

AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.79

Value

$11.74

PnL

-$3.05

Record

71%

7095-2847 (9942)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.25

Value

$11.05

PnL

+$0.79

Record

58%

19424-14279 (33703)

dv-pmCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.38

Value

$5.33

PnL

-$2.05

Record

49%

3292-3422 (6714)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.13

Value

$1.08

PnL

-$0.08

Record

50%

20715-20970 (41685)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 12 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 94%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Mature

33h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance7.8%

6.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1174.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

1274.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.