SK Slavia Praha vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5

3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (27%) · Over at 80¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 4

Over80¢Under20¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 27%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

$32.43

Smart Money Entry

82.7¢ → 79.5¢

-4% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 11 top traders (27%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over80%

Under21%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares3,622

Combined PnL-$88.12

Under8 traders

Total Value$920.15

Total Shares4,457

Combined PnL+$120.56

Over — 27%Under — 73%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 73% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x127e88ca7f26b32be5ff2b005c5478cbd3833dd8	Overavg 82.7¢	$2.9K	$2.8K	-$87.5	67% 238-116 (354)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 17.5¢	$684.87	$800.03	+$115.16	51% 24004-22756 (46760)
CA CannaeARB<$100	Overavg 81.4¢	$139.18	$137.92	-$1.26	53% 16492-14656 (31148)
└ Over leg	Overavg 81.4¢	$105.94	$102.83	-$3.11
└ Under leg	Underavg 18¢	$33.24	$35.08	+$1.85
38 38791873984189	Overavg 81¢	$126.95	$105.25	-$0.04	48% 58721-62631 (121352)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 19.8¢	$62.08	$59.66	-$2.42	54% 1178-1008 (2186)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 16¢	$34.91	$41.44	+$6.53	50% 36318-35797 (72115)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 17.3¢	$9.48	$10.43	+$0.95	58% 19232-14159 (33391)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Overavg 84¢	$10.92	$10.27	-$0.59	50% 27743-27603 (55346)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 18.7¢	$3.09	$3.14	+$0.04	53% 1134-1025 (2159)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 16.7¢	$2.29	$2.61	+$0.32	51% 7644-7356 (15000)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 18.7¢	$1.69	$1.71	+$0.02	51% 1084-1025 (2109)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 19.8¢	$1.19	$1.14	-$0.05	52% 1149-1066 (2215)

0x127e88ca7f26b32be5ff2b005c5478cbd3833dd8

Over

Invested

$2,895.83

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$87.5

Record

67%

238-116 (354)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$684.87

Value

$800.03

PnL

+$115.16

Record

51%

24004-22756 (46760)

CannaeARB<$100

Over

Invested

$139.18

Value

$137.92

PnL

-$1.26

Record

53%

16492-14656 (31148)

Both legs:

Over$105.9481.4¢-$3.11

Under$33.2418¢+$1.85

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$126.95

Value

$105.25

PnL

-$0.04

Record

48%

58721-62631 (121352)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$62.08

Value

$59.66

PnL

-$2.42

Record

54%

1178-1008 (2186)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$34.91

Value

$41.44

PnL

+$6.53

Record

50%

36318-35797 (72115)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.48

Value

$10.43

PnL

+$0.95

Record

58%

19232-14159 (33391)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Over

Invested

$10.92

Value

$10.27

PnL

-$0.59

Record

50%

27743-27603 (55346)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.09

Value

$3.14

PnL

+$0.04

Record

53%

1134-1025 (2159)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.29

Value

$2.61

PnL

+$0.32

Record

51%

7644-7356 (15000)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.69

Value

$1.71

PnL

+$0.02

Record

51%

1084-1025 (2109)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.19

Value

$1.14

PnL

-$0.05

Record

52%

1149-1066 (2215)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 80%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 11 top traders (27%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 73% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.