Stade Rennais FC 1901 vs. Olympiakós SFP: Both Teams to Score

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 100¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 5

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

$494.03

Smart Money Entry

67.1¢ → 100¢

+49% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares4,221

Combined PnL+$534.62

Yes2 traders

Total Value$595.25

Total Shares2,012

Combined PnL-$40.59

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 64.1¢	$2.6K	$3.1K	+$451.49	51% 24219-22949 (47168)
RN1	Noavg 78.5¢	$574.25	$621.56	+$47.31	53% 60059-52427 (112486)
WI Winning2...CTR	Yesavg 31.5¢	$630.24	$589.99	-$40.25	33% 1138-2310 (3448)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 93.8¢	$169.3	$174.21	+$4.91	50% 36335-35819 (72154)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Noavg 69.9¢	$133.43	$128.73	-$4.69	48% 59237-63255 (122492)
└ No leg	Noavg 69.9¢	$75.01	$99.54	+$24.53
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 14.4¢	$58.42	$29.2	-$29.22
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 39.3¢	$26.6	$38.92	+$12.32	58% 45427-32914 (78341)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 57¢	$25.71	$34.75	+$9.05	47% 11071-12407 (23478)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 40¢	$18.06	$25.96	+$7.9	53% 16517-14663 (31180)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 41.2¢	$4.12	$5.75	+$1.63	52% 1158-1077 (2235)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 45.2¢	$5.59	$5.25	-$0.34	50% 20734-20980 (41714)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 41¢	$2.13	$4.98	+$0.01	49% 14323-15001 (29324)

Flaznorp

Invested

$2,611.15

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$451.49

Record

51%

24219-22949 (47168)

RN1

Invested

$574.25

Value

$621.56

PnL

+$47.31

Record

53%

60059-52427 (112486)

Winning2...CTR

Yes

Invested

$630.24

Value

$589.99

PnL

-$40.25

Record

33%

1138-2310 (3448)

SnakeBall

Invested

$169.3

Value

$174.21

PnL

+$4.91

Record

50%

36335-35819 (72154)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Invested

$133.43

Value

$128.73

PnL

-$4.69

Record

48%

59237-63255 (122492)

Both legs:

No$75.0169.9¢+$24.53

Yes$58.4214.4¢-$29.22

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$26.6

Value

$38.92

PnL

+$12.32

Record

58%

45427-32914 (78341)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$25.71

Value

$34.75

PnL

+$9.05

Record

47%

11071-12407 (23478)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$18.06

Value

$25.96

PnL

+$7.9

Record

53%

16517-14663 (31180)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$4.12

Value

$5.75

PnL

+$1.63

Record

52%

1158-1077 (2235)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.59

Value

$5.25

PnL

-$0.34

Record

50%

20734-20980 (41714)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$2.13

Value

$4.98

PnL

+$0.01

Record

49%

14323-15001 (29324)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.