Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-11-08?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (44%) · Yes at 59¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 8

Yes59¢No41¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$157.18

Smart Money Entry

54.7¢ → 58.5¢

+7% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes59%

No42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares3,443

Combined PnL+$108.95

No5 traders

Total Value$382.74

Total Shares815

Combined PnL+$48.23

Yes — 44%No — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

50h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 54.8¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$107.63	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Yesavg 55¢	$454.21	$477.75	+$23.54	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 55¢	$352.59	$375.03	+$22.44
└ No leg	Noavg 41.1¢	$101.62	$102.72	+$1.1
RA rabbitfoot1	Yesavg 55.2¢	$161.32	$156.23	-$1.46	54% 1244-1053 (2297)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Noavg 48.6¢	$130.7	$123.59	-$2.42	50% 21821-22062 (43883)
0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121CTR<$100	Noavg 26¢	$56.94	$98.55	+$41.61	83% 91-18 (109)
NO NotradecopyCTR<$100	Noavg 40¢	$77.78	$86.53	+$8.75	48% 4060-4345 (8405)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 46¢	$23.6	$42.03	-$0.08	50% 26504-26107 (52611)
BL BlackMamba08<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$39.03	$41.76	+$2.73	49% 103-107 (210)
BI biying99999CTR<$100	Noavg 44¢	$31.68	$32.04	+$0.36	49% 146-152 (298)
VeryLucky888<$100	Yesavg 58¢	$5.8	$5.85	+$0.05	58% 47904-34520 (82424)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$1,990.53

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$107.63

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$454.21

Value

$477.75

PnL

+$23.54

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

Both legs:

Invested

$161.32

Value

$156.23

PnL

-$1.46

Record

54%

1244-1053 (2297)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Invested

$130.7

Value

$123.59

PnL

-$2.42

Record

50%

21821-22062 (43883)

0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121CTR<$100

Invested

$56.94

Value

$98.55

PnL

+$41.61

Record

83%

91-18 (109)

NotradecopyCTR<$100

Invested

$77.78

Value

$86.53

PnL

+$8.75

Record

48%

4060-4345 (8405)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$23.6

Value

$42.03

PnL

-$0.08

Record

50%

26504-26107 (52611)

BlackMamba08<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.03

Value

$41.76

PnL

+$2.73

Record

49%

103-107 (210)

biying99999CTR<$100

Invested

$31.68

Value

$32.04

PnL

+$0.36

Record

49%

146-152 (298)

VeryLucky888<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.8

Value

$5.85

PnL

+$0.05

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 59%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

50h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.