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3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 98¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 7

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 33%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$2.1K

Smart Money Entry

96.1¢ → 97.9¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,318

Combined PnL+$81.83

Yes6 traders

Total Value$382.03

Total Shares17,849

Combined PnL+$2.0K

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpYes 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 70% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495	Noavg 96.1¢	$1.1K	$984.28	+$16.48	56% 18179-14063 (32242)
RA rainbowlilies	Noavg 96.2¢	$358.6	$292.65	+$65.3	40% 2714-4060 (6774)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR	Yesavg 3¢	$490.04	$251.44	+$2.0K	43% 42-55 (97)
paddaaCTR	Yesavg 1.8¢	$90	$107.5	+$17.5	56% 850-655 (1505)
ME melonmanmCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.9¢	$36.87	$15	-$18.5	65% 582-307 (889)
BR browne<$100	Noavg 97¢	$8.79	$8.84	+$0.05	71% 181-74 (255)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 18.8¢	$45.54	$4.39	-$29.91	35% 17800-33165 (50965)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.6¢	$6.07	$3.41	-$2.66	20% 2535-10042 (12577)
MO Monopoly_MoneyCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.9¢	$0.58	$0.28	-$0.3	62% 159-96 (255)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495

Invested

$1,117.64

Value

$984.28

PnL

+$16.48

Record

56%

18179-14063 (32242)

rainbowlilies

Invested

$358.6

Value

$292.65

PnL

+$65.3

Record

40%

2714-4060 (6774)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR

Yes

Invested

$490.04

Value

$251.44

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

43%

42-55 (97)

paddaaCTR

Yes

Invested

$90

Value

$107.5

PnL

+$17.5

Record

56%

850-655 (1505)

melonmanmCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.87

Value

$15

PnL

-$18.5

Record

65%

582-307 (889)

browne<$100

Invested

$8.79

Value

$8.84

PnL

+$0.05

Record

71%

181-74 (255)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.54

Value

$4.39

PnL

-$29.91

Record

35%

17800-33165 (50965)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.07

Value

$3.41

PnL

-$2.66

Record

20%

2535-10042 (12577)

Monopoly_MoneyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.58

Value

$0.28

PnL

-$0.3

Record

62%

159-96 (255)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpYes 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 70% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.9%

97.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.