Consensus PnL -$22K · win rate 77% (161–47, n=208) · PM monthly #832 · holds 10 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-22.2K
Record
161W / 47L
Win Rate
77.0%
of 208 settled
Batting Avg
40.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#524
Source
PM monthly #832
Trades
234
Markets
242
Volume
$2.7M
Top consensus positions
10 in listed consensus markets · 8 of 10 on the consensus side (80%)- Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $31K · now 19¢ · in at 25¢with the consensus (75% of 53)
- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseNo $11K · now 28¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Yes $7.3K · now 74¢ · in at 61¢with the consensus (69% of 45)
- Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?No $4.7K · now 97¢ · in at 72¢with the consensus (68% of 34)
- Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Yes $4.1K · now 82¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (50% of 48)
- Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Yes $3.3K · now 68¢ · in at 59¢with the consensus (60% of 60)
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?No $2.3K · now 92¢ · in at 33¢with the consensus (52% of 31)
- Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes $1.7K · now 11¢ · in at 44¢with the consensus (79% of 44)
Specialties
184 settled consensus markets · held side won 75% at an average entry of 65¢- Geopolitics
+11 pts
side won 79% of 84 · avg entry 68¢
ROI +3%
- Politics
+19 pts
side won 80% of 15 · avg entry 61¢
ROI +14%
- Crypto
+17 pts
side won 85% of 13 · avg entry 68¢
ROI +17%
Weakest: Elections — held side won 52% of 27 at an average 53¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI −10%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 18%(won 18% of 33)
- 30–50¢: 10%(won 79% of 19)
- 50–70¢: 16%(won 70% of 30)
- 70¢ and up: 55%(won 94% of 102)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.