Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (60%). 10 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

AS Roma vs. Servette FC Chênois Féminin: O/U 3.5

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (91%) · Under at 40¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 10

Over60¢Under40¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 91%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

-$518.62

Smart Money Entry

43.4¢ → 40¢

-8% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 40%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 11 top traders (91%)Underdog side (market favors Over 60%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over60%

Under40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under10 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares5,874

Combined PnL-$518.62

Over1 trader

Total Value$11.66

Total Shares12

Combined PnL+$0

Under — 91%Over — 9%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 43.6¢	$2.1K	$1.7K	-$393.59	50% 1421-1422 (2843)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 45¢	$255.6	$198.8	-$56.8	26% 226-653 (879)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 42.2¢	$102.12	$84.78	-$17.35	25% 224-665 (889)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 42¢	$78.48	$46.71	-$31.77	26% 226-645 (871)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 27¢	$20	$25.92	+$5.93	58% 3766-2722 (6488)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 44.3¢	$107.92	$25.52	-$19.36	51% 251-244 (495)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 45.9¢	$20.52	$15.65	-$4.88	25% 222-667 (889)
UE uehehe7haha2hihia3jkst9<$100	Overavg 67¢	$11.66	$11.66	+$0	68% 15-7 (22)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 34¢	$4.47	$4.6	+$0.13	44% 79-102 (181)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$2.25	$1.25	-$1	31% 174-392 (566)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 36¢	$0.8	$0.85	+$0.06	47% 148-167 (315)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$2,066.71

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$393.59

Record

50%

1421-1422 (2843)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$255.6

Value

$198.8

PnL

-$56.8

Record

26%

226-653 (879)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$102.12

Value

$84.78

PnL

-$17.35

Record

25%

224-665 (889)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$78.48

Value

$46.71

PnL

-$31.77

Record

26%

226-645 (871)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$20

Value

$25.92

PnL

+$5.93

Record

58%

3766-2722 (6488)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$107.92

Value

$25.52

PnL

-$19.36

Record

51%

251-244 (495)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$20.52

Value

$15.65

PnL

-$4.88

Record

25%

222-667 (889)

uehehe7haha2hihia3jkst9<$100

Over

Invested

$11.66

Value

$11.66

PnL

+$0

Record

68%

15-7 (22)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.47

Value

$4.6

PnL

+$0.13

Record

44%

79-102 (181)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.25

Value

$1.25

PnL

-$1

Record

31%

174-392 (566)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.8

Value

$0.85

PnL

+$0.06

Record

47%

148-167 (315)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 40%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 11 top traders (91%)Underdog side (market favors Over 60%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.2%

40.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$136.91

Max Loss

-$100.00

236.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.