Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 9 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

FC Internazionale Milano vs. Manchester City WFC: O/U 4.5

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (82%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 10

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 82%

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

$-1.3K

Smart Money Entry

37.7¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares6,870

Combined PnL$-1.3K

Over2 traders

Total Value$242

Total Shares247

Combined PnL+$3.57

Under — 82%Over — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 39.3¢	$2.8K	$1.9K	-$857.43	50% 1421-1422 (2843)
RN1CTR	Underavg 68¢	$464.96	$447.33	-$17.63	58% 3766-2722 (6488)
0X 0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540	Overavg 98¢	$236.83	$240.45	+$3.62	79% 22-6 (28)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$55.42	$84.98	+$29.56	44% 79-102 (181)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 48.4¢	$69.56	$28.04	-$41.52	26% 226-645 (871)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 30¢	$21	$21.35	+$0.35	26% 226-653 (879)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 50¢	$11.62	$11.5	-$0.12	25% 224-665 (889)
NO NordhavenCap<$100	Overavg 32¢	$1.6	$1.55	-$0.05	5% 10-176 (186)
dips.CTR<$100	Underavg 1¢	$2.88	$1.44	-$1.44	42% 208-286 (494)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 29¢	$239.72	$0.41	-$239.3	57% 1516-1167 (2683)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 25¢	$186.91	$0.37	-$186.54	25% 222-667 (889)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$2,776.74

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$857.43

Record

50%

1421-1422 (2843)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$464.96

Value

$447.33

PnL

-$17.63

Record

58%

3766-2722 (6488)

0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540

Over

Invested

$236.83

Value

$240.45

PnL

+$3.62

Record

79%

22-6 (28)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$55.42

Value

$84.98

PnL

+$29.56

Record

44%

79-102 (181)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$69.56

Value

$28.04

PnL

-$41.52

Record

26%

226-645 (871)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$21

Value

$21.35

PnL

+$0.35

Record

26%

226-653 (879)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11.62

Value

$11.5

PnL

-$0.12

Record

25%

224-665 (889)

NordhavenCap<$100

Over

Invested

$1.6

Value

$1.55

PnL

-$0.05

Record

10-176 (186)

dips.CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.88

Value

$1.44

PnL

-$1.44

Record

42%

208-286 (494)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$239.72

Value

$0.41

PnL

-$239.3

Record

57%

1516-1167 (2683)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$186.91

Value

$0.37

PnL

-$186.54

Record

25%

222-667 (889)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.