Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 10 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $206 held · ends Dec 31

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$205.59

Combined PnL

$-6.1K

Smart Money Entry

4.8¢ → 0.1¢

-97% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$205.59

Total Shares137,059

Combined PnL$-6.1K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

195 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 1.1¢	$682.53	$110.87	-$571.66	41% 1986-2802 (4788)
Trading4FridgeCTR	Yesavg 10.2¢	$4.4K	$63.52	$-4.3K	58% 928-661 (1589)
NadmiCTR	Yesavg 3.7¢	$210.35	$10.52	-$199.83	47% 2036-2278 (4314)
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100	Yes	$6.84	$6.84	-$344.03	36% 2086-3721 (5807)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR	Yesavg 7.7¢	$344.36	$6.72	-$337.74	47% 85-95 (180)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR	Yesavg 14.2¢	$0	$2.84	+$2.84	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.4¢	$29.54	$2.21	-$27.32	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
mombilCTR	Yesavg 25¢	$13.84	$1.82	-$301.12	55% 1191-966 (2157)
LO Logan.CTR<$100	Yesavg 6.5¢	$0	$0.12	+$0.12	41% 648-925 (1573)
RA ratedCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.9¢	$5.8	$0.11	-$5.69	29% 2865-6952 (9817)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$682.53

Value

$110.87

PnL

-$571.66

Record

41%

1986-2802 (4788)

Trading4FridgeCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,360.04

Value

$63.52

PnL

$-4.3K

Record

58%

928-661 (1589)

NadmiCTR

Yes

Invested

$210.35

Value

$10.52

PnL

-$199.83

Record

47%

2036-2278 (4314)

HerrieDavisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.84

Value

$6.84

PnL

-$344.03

Record

36%

2086-3721 (5807)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR

Yes

Invested

$344.36

Value

$6.72

PnL

-$337.74

Record

47%

85-95 (180)

wokerjoesleeperCTR

Yes

Invested

Value

$2.84

PnL

+$2.84

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.54

Value

$2.21

PnL

-$27.32

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

mombilCTR

Yes

Invested

$13.84

Value

$1.82

PnL

-$301.12

Record

55%

1191-966 (2157)

Logan.CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.12

PnL

+$0.12

Record

41%

648-925 (1573)

ratedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.8

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$5.69

Record

29%

2865-6952 (9817)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

195 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.2%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8186.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

8286.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.