Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (70%) · Yes at 85¢ · $38K held · ends Apr 1, 2028

Yes85¢No15¢Ends Sat, Apr 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 70%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$37.8K

Combined PnL

$1.4K

Smart Money Entry

77¢ → 84.5¢

+10% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 85%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 10 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes85%

No16%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$29.3K

Total Shares34,729

Combined PnL+$2.7K

No3 traders

Total Value$7.8K

Total Shares50,571

Combined PnL$-1.3K

Yes — 70%No — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

720h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sniperNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PK pkz	Yesavg 75.7¢	$20.3K	$22.7K	+$2.4K	57% 468-346 (814)
FZ fzolCTR	Noavg 18¢	$9.0K	$7.7K	$-1.2K	— 3-2 (5)
SirHarryOakes	Yesavg 82.5¢	$4.0K	$4.1K	+$99.05	84% 215-41 (256)
ST stupid22	Yesavg 81¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$70	94% 411-26 (437)
SU SunlineTickerARB<$100	Noavg 19.2¢	$683.1	$605.56	-$77.52	62% 4201-2575 (6776)
└ No leg	Noavg 19.2¢	$508.3	$411.22	-$97.07
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 76¢	$174.8	$194.35	+$19.55
4751346	Yesavg 80¢	$446.06	$465.1	+$19.04	72% 1257-483 (1740)
GenaTheBondKilIer	Yesavg 73.9¢	$207.76	$237.66	+$29.89	51% 527-509 (1036)
GH ghorrock	Yesavg 78.1¢	$24.06	$135.83	+$111.77	56% 14224-11030 (25254)
12 123987456CTR	Noavg 18.9¢	$107.65	$88.2	-$19.45	45% 1905-2348 (4253)
ED Ed2357<$100	Yesavg 80¢	$2	$2.11	+$0.11	— 0-3 (3)
ME merodCTR<$100	Noavg 19.5¢	$0.41	$0.32	-$0.09	51% 2516-2391 (4907)

pkz

Yes

Invested

$20,333.64

Value

$22.7K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

57%

468-346 (814)

fzolCTR

Invested

$8,999.99

Value

$7.7K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

—

3-2 (5)

SirHarryOakes

Yes

Invested

$4,012.99

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$99.05

Record

84%

215-41 (256)

stupid22

Yes

Invested

$1,619.99

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$70

Record

94%

411-26 (437)

SunlineTickerARB<$100

Invested

$683.1

Value

$605.56

PnL

-$77.52

Record

62%

4201-2575 (6776)

Both legs:

Invested

$446.06

Value

$465.1

PnL

+$19.04

Record

72%

1257-483 (1740)

GenaTheBondKilIer

Yes

Invested

$207.76

Value

$237.66

PnL

+$29.89

Record

51%

527-509 (1036)

ghorrock

Yes

Invested

$24.06

Value

$135.83

PnL

+$111.77

Record

56%

14224-11030 (25254)

123987456CTR

Invested

$107.65

Value

$88.2

PnL

-$19.45

Record

45%

1905-2348 (4253)

Ed2357<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$2.11

PnL

+$0.11

Record

—

0-3 (3)

merodCTR<$100

Invested

$0.41

Value

$0.32

PnL

-$0.09

Record

51%

2516-2391 (4907)

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 85%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 10 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

720h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sniperNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.0%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.