Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Anthropic (60%) · Anthropic at 98¢ · $30K held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Anthropic98¢OpenAI2¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Anthropic

Consensus Traders

Anthropic 60%

Total Value

$30.4K

Combined PnL

-$587.45

Smart Money Entry

89.8¢ → 97.8¢

+9% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralAnthropic at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Anthropic

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Anthropic98%

OpenAI2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Anthropic6 traders

Total Value$29.8K

Total Shares30,428

Combined PnL+$2.4K

OpenAI4 traders

Total Value$624.73

Total Shares28,397

Combined PnL$-3.0K

Anthropic — 60%OpenAI — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Late

3947h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

29 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Anthropic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (5 on OpenAI) and the top 1000 (7 on Anthropic) disagree here.

whaleAnthropic 50% · 6

Aligned

sharpAnthropic 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrOpenAI 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedOpenAI 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Anthropic 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PA Paul973973	Anthropicavg 89.4¢	$22.9K	$25.0K	+$2.1K	89% 923-118 (1041)
TH TheReturnOfDarthMaul	Anthropicavg 93.3¢	$2.5K	$2.4K	+$113.88	63% 353-204 (557)
Seutervoinen	Anthropicavg 95¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$38.47	85% 312-57 (369)
tja	Anthropicavg 78¢	$390	$489	+$99	73% 867-323 (1190)
ImJustKenCTR	OpenAIavg 11.3¢	$2.6K	$484.71	$-2.0K	53% 3037-2716 (5753)
NO nonkenny90	Anthropicavg 85.5¢	$379.61	$434.22	+$54.61	89% 4653-547 (5200)
occasionalAwarenessCTR	OpenAIavg 25¢	$657.07	$57.81	-$599.26	52% 284-262 (546)
NadmiCTR	OpenAIavg 4.5¢	$116.36	$56.45	-$59.9	47% 2036-2278 (4314)
mombilCTR	OpenAIavg 34.6¢	$405.1	$25.76	-$379.34	55% 1191-966 (2157)
Car<$100	Anthropicavg 96¢	$3.46	$3.52	+$0.06	67% 4165-2026 (6191)

Paul973973

Anthropic

Invested

$22,900

Value

$25.0K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

89%

923-118 (1041)

TheReturnOfDarthMaul

Anthropic

Invested

$2,504

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$113.88

Record

63%

353-204 (557)

Seutervoinen

Anthropic

Invested

$1,305.18

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$38.47

Record

85%

312-57 (369)

tja

Anthropic

Invested

$390

Value

$489

PnL

+$99

Record

73%

867-323 (1190)

ImJustKenCTR

OpenAI

Invested

$2,579.49

Value

$484.71

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

53%

3037-2716 (5753)

nonkenny90

Anthropic

Invested

$379.61

Value

$434.22

PnL

+$54.61

Record

89%

4653-547 (5200)

occasionalAwarenessCTR

OpenAI

Invested

$657.07

Value

$57.81

PnL

-$599.26

Record

52%

284-262 (546)

NadmiCTR

OpenAI

Invested

$116.36

Value

$56.45

PnL

-$59.9

Record

47%

2036-2278 (4314)

mombilCTR

OpenAI

Invested

$405.1

Value

$25.76

PnL

-$379.34

Record

55%

1191-966 (2157)

Car<$100

Anthropic

Invested

$3.46

Value

$3.52

PnL

+$0.06

Record

67%

4165-2026 (6191)

Research grade

NeutralAnthropic at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Anthropic

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Late

3947h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

29 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Anthropic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (5 on OpenAI) and the top 1000 (7 on Anthropic) disagree here.

whaleAnthropic 50% · 6

Aligned

sharpAnthropic 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrOpenAI 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedOpenAI 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Anthropic 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Anthropic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.8%

97.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.17

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.