Will Bad Bunny be the top artist for 2026?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 85¢ · $26K held · ends Feb 1, 2027

Yes85¢No15¢Ends Mon, Feb 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$25.6K

Combined PnL

$343.35

Smart Money Entry

84.3¢ → 84.5¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes85%

No16%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$25.5K

Total Shares29,851

Combined PnL+$391.56

No4 traders

Total Value$34.25

Total Shares236

Combined PnL-$48.21

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (7 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 60% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 100% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PK pkz	Yesavg 84¢	$20.6K	$21.0K	+$382.92	58% 469-346 (815)
CO Contestable-Parfait	Yesavg 86¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	-$13.97	38% 20-32 (52)
0xheavy888	Yesavg 89¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$70	55% 7318-5882 (13200)
WO wokerjoesleeper<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$1.64	$72.91	+$72.91	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
PE peepeepooppoop<$100	Yes	$51.37	$51.37	+$19.7	52% 2050-1868 (3918)
ScottyNooo<$100	Yesavg 85.5¢	$34.2	$34.2	+$0	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
TT tttt123CTR<$100	Noavg 36¢	$54.3	$21.87	-$32.43	72% 1535-585 (2120)
GohstCTR<$100	Noavg 22¢	$9.36	$6.17	-$3.19	49% 738-770 (1508)
SN SnoorrasonCTR<$100	Noavg 44.3¢	$17.71	$5.8	-$11.91	39% 1181-1881 (3062)
RA ratedCTR<$100	Noavg 40.2¢	$1.09	$0.41	-$0.69	29% 2865-6952 (9817)

pkz

Yes

Invested

$20,595.95

Value

$21.0K

PnL

+$382.92

Record

58%

469-346 (815)

Contestable-Parfait

Yes

Invested

$2,620.7

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$13.97

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

0xheavy888

Yes

Invested

$1,780

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$70

Record

55%

7318-5882 (13200)

wokerjoesleeper<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.64

Value

$72.91

PnL

+$72.91

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

peepeepooppoop<$100

Yes

Invested

$51.37

Value

$51.37

PnL

+$19.7

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

ScottyNooo<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.2

Value

$34.2

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

tttt123CTR<$100

Invested

$54.3

Value

$21.87

PnL

-$32.43

Record

72%

1535-585 (2120)

GohstCTR<$100

Invested

$9.36

Value

$6.17

PnL

-$3.19

Record

49%

738-770 (1508)

SnoorrasonCTR<$100

Invested

$17.71

Value

$5.8

PnL

-$11.91

Record

39%

1181-1881 (3062)

ratedCTR<$100

Invested

$1.09

Value

$0.41

PnL

-$0.69

Record

29%

2865-6952 (9817)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 85%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (7 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 60% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 100% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.