Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in November?

9 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 81¢ · $62K held · ends Dec 1

Yes81¢No19¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$62.3K

Combined PnL

$-2.1K

Smart Money Entry

79.2¢ → 80.5¢

+2% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 81%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 15 top traders (60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes81%

No20%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$55.7K

Total Shares70,330

Combined PnL-$95.62

No6 traders

Total Value$6.6K

Total Shares36,582

Combined PnL$-2.0K

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Late

246h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

sniperYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BE beheo123	Yesavg 76.4¢	$20.9K	$21.6K	+$718.04	— 0-5 (5)
0X 0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7	Yesavg 80¢	$19.0K	$18.8K	-$237.9	— 2-1 (3)
Rhabarberbarbarbar	Yesavg 85¢	$11.2K	$10.4K	-$782.53	—
WO woshiLimpehCTR	Noavg 23.5¢	$5.5K	$4.2K	$-1.3K	—
TO Tokor	Yesavg 75¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$126.8	50% 89-89 (178)
SU SunlineTicker	Yesavg 78.7¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$34.3	70% 1688-729 (2417)
10 10Alexander321CTR	Noavg 24.9¢	$1.7K	$1.2K	-$473.35	— 0-4 (4)
CA Carry99CTR	Noavg 23¢	$948.16	$742.15	-$206.01	—
PH PhongLeXBTCTR	Noavg 19.8¢	$426.95	$387.46	-$39.49	— 1-9 (10)
Facaie	Yesavg 67.9¢	$319.72	$267.79	+$40.88	94% 45-3 (48)
AU auros2	Yesavg 79.3¢	$180.68	$126.39	+$5.93	73% 70-26 (96)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Yesavg 79¢	$262.49	$105.79	-$12.87	40% 3217-4824 (8041)
0X 0xDB5CTR	Noavg 28.9¢	$484.2	$36.69	+$3.02	73% 67-25 (92)
cryingbabydicer87	Yesavg 75.7¢	$245.66	$16.85	+$11.72	47% 753-850 (1603)
PippiTraderCTR<$100	Noavg 27¢	$5.55	$3.7	-$1.85	37% 14-24 (38)

beheo123

Yes

Invested

$20,928.46

Value

$21.6K

PnL

+$718.04

Record

—

0-5 (5)

0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7

Yes

Invested

$19,020.63

Value

$18.8K

PnL

-$237.9

Record

—

2-1 (3)

Rhabarberbarbarbar

Yes

Invested

$11,167.01

Value

$10.4K

PnL

-$782.53

Record

—

woshiLimpehCTR

Invested

$5,460.63

Value

$4.2K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

—

Tokor

Yes

Invested

$2,377.5

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$126.8

Record

50%

89-89 (178)

SunlineTicker

Yes

Invested

$1,857.67

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$34.3

Record

70%

1688-729 (2417)

10Alexander321CTR

Invested

$1,702.2

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$473.35

Record

—

0-4 (4)

Carry99CTR

Invested

$948.16

Value

$742.15

PnL

-$206.01

Record

—

PhongLeXBTCTR

Invested

$426.95

Value

$387.46

PnL

-$39.49

Record

—

1-9 (10)

Facaie

Yes

Invested

$319.72

Value

$267.79

PnL

+$40.88

Record

94%

45-3 (48)

auros2

Yes

Invested

$180.68

Value

$126.39

PnL

+$5.93

Record

73%

70-26 (96)

xtxpleasecallme

Yes

Invested

$262.49

Value

$105.79

PnL

-$12.87

Record

40%

3217-4824 (8041)

0xDB5CTR

Invested

$484.2

Value

$36.69

PnL

+$3.02

Record

73%

67-25 (92)

cryingbabydicer87

Yes

Invested

$245.66

Value

$16.85

PnL

+$11.72

Record

47%

753-850 (1603)

PippiTraderCTR<$100

Invested

$5.55

Value

$3.7

PnL

-$1.85

Record

37%

14-24 (38)

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 81%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 15 top traders (60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Late

246h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

sniperYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.6%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.13

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.