Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 11 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Borussia Dortmund win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?

11 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.9¢ · $2K held · ends May 30, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, May 30, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

-$974.88

Smart Money Entry

1.5¢ → 0.9¢

-36% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 11 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes11 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares197,998

Combined PnL-$974.88

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Late

707h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

8 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
50-PenceCTR	Yesavg 1.9¢	$1.6K	$785.82	-$785.9	39% 158-246 (404)
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 0.9¢	$483.12	$484.5	+$1.37	41% 1998-2833 (4831)
TN tnlCTR	Yesavg 1.1¢	$275	$237.5	-$37.5	51% 518-491 (1009)
Gucky-45CTR	Yes	$190	$190	-$53.9	32% 652-1414 (2066)
DG DG-NOCTR<$100	Yes	$57	$57	-$16.17	40% 653-974 (1627)
thefakenickCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$67.26	$53.25	-$14.01	56% 828-655 (1483)
0X 0xf475402430f3dc9611abeea737fe69dd02f48486CTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$89.56	$42.04	-$47.52	12% 22-166 (188)
RA rainbowliliesCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	$22.96	$11.77	-$11.19	40% 2660-3917 (6577)
HOG993CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$13.55	$10.56	-$3	42% 506-685 (1191)
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$6.1	$4.75	-$1.35	38% 495-815 (1310)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$9.52	$3.8	-$5.72	56% 3078-2425 (5503)

50-PenceCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,571.72

Value

$785.82

PnL

-$785.9

Record

39%

158-246 (404)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$483.12

Value

$484.5

PnL

+$1.37

Record

41%

1998-2833 (4831)

tnlCTR

Yes

Invested

$275

Value

$237.5

PnL

-$37.5

Record

51%

518-491 (1009)

Gucky-45CTR

Yes

Invested

$190

Value

$190

PnL

-$53.9

Record

32%

652-1414 (2066)

DG-NOCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$57

Value

$57

PnL

-$16.17

Record

40%

653-974 (1627)

thefakenickCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$67.26

Value

$53.25

PnL

-$14.01

Record

56%

828-655 (1483)

0xf475402430f3dc9611abeea737fe69dd02f48486CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$89.56

Value

$42.04

PnL

-$47.52

Record

12%

22-166 (188)

rainbowliliesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.96

Value

$11.77

PnL

-$11.19

Record

40%

2660-3917 (6577)

HOG993CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.55

Value

$10.56

PnL

-$3

Record

42%

506-685 (1191)

TheGreatBetaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.1

Value

$4.75

PnL

-$1.35

Record

38%

495-815 (1310)

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.52

Value

$3.8

PnL

-$5.72

Record

56%

3078-2425 (5503)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 11 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Late

707h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

8 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.0%

0.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4788.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

4888.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.