Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 63¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 4

Yes63¢No37¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$6.2K

Combined PnL

-$107.39

Smart Money Entry

54.8¢ → 62.5¢

+14% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes63%

No38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares5,416

Combined PnL+$368.9

No5 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares7,574

Combined PnL-$476.29

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Late

1798h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (4 on Yes) and the top 1000 (9 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RememberAmalek	Yesavg 54.7¢	$2.3K	$2.6K	+$289.54	56% 973-769 (1742)
AN anoin123CTR	Noavg 44.5¢	$2.5K	$2.2K	-$346.35	47% 474-534 (1008)
LO Loyalty-Crash	Yesavg 60.5¢	$449.13	$456.53	+$7.4	62% 45-28 (73)
FrozenParasiteCTR	No	$318.14	$318.14	-$82.41	55% 463-373 (836)
CO cowcat	Yesavg 45.1¢	$175.5	$239.46	+$63.96	53% 1560-1362 (2922)
JA JAMJAMJAM4CTR	Noavg 49¢	$95.06	$181.11	-$49.39	73% 3600-1329 (4929)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Noavg 36¢	$14.4	$127.05	-$2.88	72% 6827-2621 (9448)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Noavg 37.9¢	$83.12	$87.87	+$4.75	52% 2050-1868 (3918)
bernardbulletin<$100	Yesavg 52¢	$26	$30.75	+$4.5	69% 987-450 (1437)
LE LetTheGoodTimesRoll<$100	Yesavg 64¢	$12.56	$2.46	+$3.5	45% 3592-4351 (7943)

RememberAmalek

Yes

Invested

$2,312.45

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$289.54

Record

56%

973-769 (1742)

anoin123CTR

Invested

$2,548.1

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$346.35

Record

47%

474-534 (1008)

Loyalty-Crash

Yes

Invested

$449.13

Value

$456.53

PnL

+$7.4

Record

62%

45-28 (73)

FrozenParasiteCTR

Invested

$318.14

Value

$318.14

PnL

-$82.41

Record

55%

463-373 (836)

cowcat

Yes

Invested

$175.5

Value

$239.46

PnL

+$63.96

Record

53%

1560-1362 (2922)

JAMJAMJAM4CTR

Invested

$95.06

Value

$181.11

PnL

-$49.39

Record

73%

3600-1329 (4929)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Invested

$14.4

Value

$127.05

PnL

-$2.88

Record

72%

6827-2621 (9448)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Invested

$83.12

Value

$87.87

PnL

+$4.75

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

bernardbulletin<$100

Yes

Invested

$26

Value

$30.75

PnL

+$4.5

Record

69%

987-450 (1437)

LetTheGoodTimesRoll<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.56

Value

$2.46

PnL

+$3.5

Record

45%

3592-4351 (7943)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 63%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Late

1798h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (4 on Yes) and the top 1000 (9 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.4%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$55.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

155.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.