Will Democrats win exactly 2 House seats in South Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 97¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 4

Yes97¢No3¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

30.9¢ → 97.2¢

+215% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes97%

No3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares1,944

Combined PnL+$1.2K

No4 traders

Total Value$135.55

Total Shares367

Combined PnL-$139.84

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Late

754h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

16 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ifyouloveme	Yesavg 49.3¢	$44.83	$588.26	+$375.87	55% 327-271 (598)
RA RadioCCOD	Yesavg 19¢	$3.8	$568.19	+$367.03	47% 17-19 (36)
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836	Yesavg 26¢	$119.92	$440.18	+$304.12	66% 271-142 (413)
RememberAmalek	Yesavg 22¢	$40.57	$176.09	+$135.53	56% 1018-799 (1817)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Noavg 65.1¢	$565.33	$131.32	-$69.99	35% 18159-34016 (52175)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Yesavg 26.2¢	$21.72	$79.27	+$57.55	27% 6849-18792 (25641)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$1.3	$4.77	+$3.47	77% 12312-3779 (16091)
ME merodCTR<$100	Noavg 77¢	$33.88	$1.98	-$31.9	43% 3133-4188 (7321)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Noavg 82¢	$32.8	$1.8	-$31	42% 7028-9819 (16847)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Noavg 74¢	$7.4	$0.45	-$6.95	49% 8853-9359 (18212)

ifyouloveme

Yes

Invested

$44.83

Value

$588.26

PnL

+$375.87

Record

55%

327-271 (598)

RadioCCOD

Yes

Invested

$3.8

Value

$568.19

PnL

+$367.03

Record

47%

17-19 (36)

0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836

Yes

Invested

$119.92

Value

$440.18

PnL

+$304.12

Record

66%

271-142 (413)

RememberAmalek

Yes

Invested

$40.57

Value

$176.09

PnL

+$135.53

Record

56%

1018-799 (1817)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Invested

$565.33

Value

$131.32

PnL

-$69.99

Record

35%

18159-34016 (52175)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.72

Value

$79.27

PnL

+$57.55

Record

27%

6849-18792 (25641)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.3

Value

$4.77

PnL

+$3.47

Record

77%

12312-3779 (16091)

merodCTR<$100

Invested

$33.88

Value

$1.98

PnL

-$31.9

Record

43%

3133-4188 (7321)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Invested

$32.8

Value

$1.8

PnL

-$31

Record

42%

7028-9819 (16847)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Invested

$7.4

Value

$0.45

PnL

-$6.95

Record

49%

8853-9359 (18212)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Late

754h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

16 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.2%

97.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.81

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.