Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 10 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Doug Burgum win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$-1.6K

Smart Money Entry

0.4¢ → 0.1¢

-58% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares772,418

Combined PnL$-1.6K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Late

250h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BigRabbitCTR	Yesavg 0.2¢	$678.57	$642.85	-$10.5	40% 704-1061 (1765)
TH The Spirit of Ukraine>UMACTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$1.7K	$387.75	$-1.3K	67% 751-378 (1129)
0X 0x62764005C3F58450d21DA9984F6eab56cF3c2Dd9-1765423921985CTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$118.11	$45	-$73.11	64% 154-88 (242)
PL plumbisCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$50	$37.5	-$12.5	57% 51-39 (90)
LO Logan.CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$38.31	$15.88	-$64.05	41% 648-925 (1573)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$4.26	$8.51	-$23.27	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
flow-trader-at-optiverCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$42.3	$8.37	-$33.93	39% 965-1508 (2473)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$34.7	$6.67	-$28.08	47% 83-94 (177)
GollumGekkoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$26.65	$6.06	-$21.14	68% 2074-957 (3031)
VI VivianWardCTR<$100	Yes	$0.03	$0.03	+$0.03	86% 3499-571 (4070)

BigRabbitCTR

Yes

Invested

$678.57

Value

$642.85

PnL

-$10.5

Record

40%

704-1061 (1765)

The Spirit of Ukraine>UMACTR

Yes

Invested

$1,730.41

Value

$387.75

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

67%

751-378 (1129)

0x62764005C3F58450d21DA9984F6eab56cF3c2Dd9-1765423921985CTR

Yes

Invested

$118.11

Value

$45

PnL

-$73.11

Record

64%

154-88 (242)

plumbisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$50

Value

$37.5

PnL

-$12.5

Record

57%

51-39 (90)

Logan.CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.31

Value

$15.88

PnL

-$64.05

Record

41%

648-925 (1573)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.26

Value

$8.51

PnL

-$23.27

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

flow-trader-at-optiverCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.3

Value

$8.37

PnL

-$33.93

Record

39%

965-1508 (2473)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.7

Value

$6.67

PnL

-$28.08

Record

47%

83-94 (177)

GollumGekkoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.65

Value

$6.06

PnL

-$21.14

Record

68%

2074-957 (3031)

VivianWardCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.03

PnL

+$0.03

Record

86%

3499-571 (4070)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Late

250h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.2%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8264.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

8364.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.