Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by December 31?
8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 73¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 80%
$1.9K
-$36.05
76.6¢ → 72.5¢
-5% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 73%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+2 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 63%
Freshness
Late
431h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BR browneCTR | Yesavg 27¢ | $446.04 | $454.3 | +$8.26 | 71% 173-70 (243) |
JE Jest55 | Noavg 75.5¢ | $475.4 | $453.6 | -$18.65 | 75% 1028-338 (1366) |
 Udonsan | Noavg 73.6¢ | $351.64 | $344.13 | -$5.12 | 79% 250-67 (317) |
 GonTanaka | Noavg 76.7¢ | $176.97 | $166.03 | -$9.78 | 57% 173-128 (301) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Noavg 83.5¢ | $179.26 | $165.47 | -$13.79 | 56% 15372-11923 (27295) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 22.3¢ | $139.31 | $153.45 | +$14.14 | 36% 16072-28083 (44155) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $60.52 | $58.26 | -$2.26 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
LI lissartter<$100 | Noavg 85.2¢ | $50.05 | $42.63 | -$7.42 | 42% 5284-7234 (12518) |
 tetrase<$100 | Noavg 76.8¢ | $16.3 | $15.75 | -$0.42 | 61% 839-544 (1383) |
 vinii<$100 | Noavg 79.2¢ | $11.79 | $10.79 | -$1.01 | 74% 2792-1004 (3796) |
Invested
$446.04
Value
$454.3
PnL
+$8.26
Record
71%
173-70 (243)
Invested
$475.4
Value
$453.6
PnL
-$18.65
Record
75%
1028-338 (1366)
UdonsanInvested
$351.64
Value
$344.13
PnL
-$5.12
Record
79%
250-67 (317)
GonTanakaInvested
$176.97
Value
$166.03
PnL
-$9.78
Record
57%
173-128 (301)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$179.26
Value
$165.47
PnL
-$13.79
Record
56%
15372-11923 (27295)
Invested
$139.31
Value
$153.45
PnL
+$14.14
Record
36%
16072-28083 (44155)
Invested
$60.52
Value
$58.26
PnL
-$2.26
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
Invested
$50.05
Value
$42.63
PnL
-$7.42
Record
42%
5284-7234 (12518)
tetrase<$100Invested
$16.3
Value
$15.75
PnL
-$0.42
Record
61%
839-544 (1383)
vinii<$100Invested
$11.79
Value
$10.79
PnL
-$1.01
Record
74%
2792-1004 (3796)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.