Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 10 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $264 held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$264.22

Combined PnL

-$565.39

Smart Money Entry

0.5¢ → 0.1¢

-72% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$264.22

Total Shares135,645

Combined PnL-$565.39

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

24 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100	Yes	$99.42	$99.42	-$206.7	72% 6827-2621 (9448)
TH The Spirit of Ukraine>UMACTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$132.11	$52	-$80.11	67% 751-378 (1129)
2B9SCTR	Yesavg 0.6¢	$0.03	$50.01	-$147.67	18% 3832-17370 (21202)
LO Logan.CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$38.31	$21.17	-$64.05	41% 648-925 (1573)
DonkovCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$49	$14.52	+$8.62	71% 968-396 (1364)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$4.26	$11.34	-$23.27	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
GollumGekkoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$26.65	$8.08	-$21.14	68% 2074-957 (3031)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$34.7	$6.67	-$28.08	47% 83-94 (177)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yes	$0.96	$0.96	-$3.03	7% 14-187 (201)
VI VivianWardCTR<$100	Yes	$0.03	$0.03	+$0.03	86% 3499-571 (4070)

AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$99.42

Value

$99.42

PnL

-$206.7

Record

72%

6827-2621 (9448)

The Spirit of Ukraine>UMACTR

Yes

Invested

$132.11

Value

$52

PnL

-$80.11

Record

67%

751-378 (1129)

2B9SCTR

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$50.01

PnL

-$147.67

Record

18%

3832-17370 (21202)

Logan.CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.31

Value

$21.17

PnL

-$64.05

Record

41%

648-925 (1573)

DonkovCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$49

Value

$14.52

PnL

+$8.62

Record

71%

968-396 (1364)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.26

Value

$11.34

PnL

-$23.27

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

GollumGekkoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.65

Value

$8.08

PnL

-$21.14

Record

68%

2074-957 (3031)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.7

Value

$6.67

PnL

-$28.08

Record

47%

83-94 (177)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.96

Value

$0.96

PnL

-$3.03

Record

14-187 (201)

VivianWardCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.03

PnL

+$0.03

Record

86%

3499-571 (4070)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

24 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.2%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8264.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

8364.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.