Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (58%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Manchester City be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (70%) · Yes at 42¢ · $3K held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes42¢No58¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 70%

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

$846.37

Smart Money Entry

30.3¢ → 42.2¢

+39% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 42%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors No 58%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes42%

No58%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares6,531

Combined PnL+$749.64

No3 traders

Total Value$571.91

Total Shares1,028

Combined PnL+$96.73

Yes — 70%No — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Late

813h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
probabilityCTR	Yesavg 34.4¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$187.33	40% 1573-2382 (3955)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Yesavg 27¢	$779.11	$1.2K	+$453.13	53% 6264-5545 (11809)
AU auros2	No	$550.23	$550.23	+$78.38	— 4-0 (4)
PU purplegattoCTR	Yesavg 17.9¢	$62.81	$155.23	+$88.21	49% 6296-6455 (12751)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 43¢	$79.89	$80.14	+$0.25	40% 6536-9791 (16327)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 26.7¢	$21.98	$36.5	+$14.52	77% 12698-3875 (16573)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 57¢	$14.27	$13.93	+$0.08	58% 21239-15426 (36665)
thefakenickCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.9¢	$2.18	$8.32	+$6.14	50% 922-908 (1830)
TimeTraveler	Noavg 74.5¢	$680.73	$7.75	+$18.28	41% 2125-3051 (5176)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 43.1¢	$2.08	$2.13	+$0.05	16% 383-1960 (2343)

probabilityCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,146.55

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$187.33

Record

40%

1573-2382 (3955)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Yes

Invested

$779.11

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$453.13

Record

53%

6264-5545 (11809)

auros2

Invested

$550.23

Value

$550.23

PnL

+$78.38

Record

—

4-0 (4)

purplegattoCTR

Yes

Invested

$62.81

Value

$155.23

PnL

+$88.21

Record

49%

6296-6455 (12751)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$79.89

Value

$80.14

PnL

+$0.25

Record

40%

6536-9791 (16327)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.98

Value

$36.5

PnL

+$14.52

Record

77%

12698-3875 (16573)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$14.27

Value

$13.93

PnL

+$0.08

Record

58%

21239-15426 (36665)

thefakenickCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.18

Value

$8.32

PnL

+$6.14

Record

50%

922-908 (1830)

TimeTraveler

Invested

$680.73

Value

$7.75

PnL

+$18.28

Record

41%

2125-3051 (5176)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.08

Value

$2.13

PnL

+$0.05

Record

16%

383-1960 (2343)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 42%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors No 58%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Late

813h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.4%

42.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$125.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

225.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.