Will Michael Kagan be the next CEO of NVIDIA?

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (45%) · No at 98¢ · $917 held · ends Jan 1, 2029

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Mon, Jan 1, 2029View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 45%

Total Value

$917.14

Combined PnL

$167.92

Smart Money Entry

86.5¢ → 97.7¢

+13% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$815.55

Total Shares881

Combined PnL+$51.75

Yes6 traders

Total Value$101.18

Total Shares1,112

Combined PnL+$116.17

No — 45%Yes — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 64% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Haradwaith	Noavg 99.3¢	$496.5	$454.83	-$41.67	38% 58-96 (154)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 50¢	$102.09	$193.85	+$91.76	40% 3217-4824 (8041)
0X 0x2a5ffc44aeb0aa4d1cdf41df7e6be60ed4476c92<$100	Noavg 91¢	$81.88	$81.88	+$0	—
0xb7de57721ee931290e90bc0c8a9f38855130b802CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$6.55	$63.74	+$57.19	— 1-0 (1)
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 99.3¢	$639.96	$54.26	-$1.37	52% 1614-1484 (3098)
TH TheWindKnowsmyName<$100	Noavg 82¢	$27.7	$30.73	+$3.03	7% 10-129 (139)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.47	$16.78	+$16.31	12% 34-241 (275)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$1.44	$14.01	+$12.57	41% 13-19 (32)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$28.3	$3.28	+$29.88	19% 814-3563 (4377)
HoshinoAICTR<$100	Yesavg 5.4¢	$3.18	$2.73	-$0.36	42% 13-18 (31)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.07	$0.64	+$0.57	36% 506-908 (1414)

Haradwaith

Invested

$496.5

Value

$454.83

PnL

-$41.67

Record

38%

58-96 (154)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$102.09

Value

$193.85

PnL

+$91.76

Record

40%

3217-4824 (8041)

0x2a5ffc44aeb0aa4d1cdf41df7e6be60ed4476c92<$100

Invested

$81.88

Value

$81.88

PnL

+$0

Record

—

0xb7de57721ee931290e90bc0c8a9f38855130b802CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.55

Value

$63.74

PnL

+$57.19

Record

—

1-0 (1)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$639.96

Value

$54.26

PnL

-$1.37

Record

52%

1614-1484 (3098)

TheWindKnowsmyName<$100

Invested

$27.7

Value

$30.73

PnL

+$3.03

Record

10-129 (139)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.47

Value

$16.78

PnL

+$16.31

Record

12%

34-241 (275)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.44

Value

$14.01

PnL

+$12.57

Record

41%

13-19 (32)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.3

Value

$3.28

PnL

+$29.88

Record

19%

814-3563 (4377)

HoshinoAICTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.18

Value

$2.73

PnL

-$0.36

Record

42%

13-18 (31)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.07

Value

$0.64

PnL

+$0.57

Record

36%

506-908 (1414)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 64% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.8%

97.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.