Will Todd Achilles win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 97¢ · $26K held · ends Nov 4

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

Total Value

$25.5K

Combined PnL

-$38.72

Smart Money Entry

93.7¢ → 96.7¢

+3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$25.0K

Total Shares25,826

Combined PnL+$784.72

Yes3 traders

Total Value$568.88

Total Shares17,239

Combined PnL-$823.44

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

709h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
elmcap2	Noavg 93.6¢	$25.0K	$24.2K	+$775.05	89% 1665-205 (1870)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 95.7¢	$345.66	$349.26	+$3.6	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR	Yesavg 4.2¢	$437.43	$344.36	-$128.8	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
BigRabbitCTR	Yesavg 7.2¢	$360	$165	-$212.5	40% 704-1061 (1765)
DEGENKHAN	Noavg 95.3¢	$161.2	$163.58	+$2.88	66% 1107-565 (1672)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 96.7¢	$96.62	$96.7	+$0.08	32% 4493-9634 (14127)
Talophex<$100	Noavg 95¢	$95	$96.7	+$1.7	91% 929-95 (1024)
AB ABC12345654321CTR	Yesavg 2¢	$1.2K	$59.53	-$482.14	50% 1658-1652 (3310)
studmuffin6969<$100	Noavg 95.3¢	$50.27	$51.01	+$0.74	59% 1027-717 (1744)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 95.2¢	$41.25	$41.85	+$0.67	56% 14224-11030 (25254)

elmcap2

Invested

$24,999.99

Value

$24.2K

PnL

+$775.05

Record

89%

1665-205 (1870)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$345.66

Value

$349.26

PnL

+$3.6

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR

Yes

Invested

$437.43

Value

$344.36

PnL

-$128.8

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

BigRabbitCTR

Yes

Invested

$360

Value

$165

PnL

-$212.5

Record

40%

704-1061 (1765)

DEGENKHAN

Invested

$161.2

Value

$163.58

PnL

+$2.88

Record

66%

1107-565 (1672)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$96.62

Value

$96.7

PnL

+$0.08

Record

32%

4493-9634 (14127)

Talophex<$100

Invested

$95

Value

$96.7

PnL

+$1.7

Record

91%

929-95 (1024)

ABC12345654321CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,162.88

Value

$59.53

PnL

-$482.14

Record

50%

1658-1652 (3310)

studmuffin6969<$100

Invested

$50.27

Value

$51.01

PnL

+$0.74

Record

59%

1027-717 (1744)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$41.25

Value

$41.85

PnL

+$0.67

Record

56%

14224-11030 (25254)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

709h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.8%

96.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.