Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 9 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (90%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $466 held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 90%

Total Value

$465.65

Combined PnL

-$73.87

Smart Money Entry

0.4¢ → 0.4¢

-8% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$424.03

Total Shares121,152

Combined PnL-$73.94

No1 trader

Total Value$41.62

Total Shares42

Combined PnL+$0.06

Yes — 90%No — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

312 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

90% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
paddaaCTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$220	$180.83	-$39.06	56% 836-644 (1480)
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 0.3¢	$142.11	$167.31	+$25.2	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$41.56	$41.62	+$0.06	56% 14224-11030 (25254)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$4.26	$19.85	-$11.93	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
LO Logan.CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$38.31	$19.55	-$22.62	41% 648-925 (1573)
CA cashyCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$17.59	$15.39	-$2.2	71% 611-250 (861)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$33.14	$14.87	-$18.32	47% 83-94 (177)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$8.81	$5.17	-$3.84	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yes	$1	$1	-$1.23	7% 14-187 (201)
VI VivianWardCTR<$100	Yes	$0.07	$0.07	+$0.07	86% 3499-571 (4070)

paddaaCTR

Yes

Invested

$220

Value

$180.83

PnL

-$39.06

Record

56%

836-644 (1480)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$142.11

Value

$167.31

PnL

+$25.2

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$41.56

Value

$41.62

PnL

+$0.06

Record

56%

14224-11030 (25254)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.26

Value

$19.85

PnL

-$11.93

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

Logan.CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.31

Value

$19.55

PnL

-$22.62

Record

41%

648-925 (1573)

cashyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.59

Value

$15.39

PnL

-$2.2

Record

71%

611-250 (861)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.14

Value

$14.87

PnL

-$18.32

Record

47%

83-94 (177)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.81

Value

$5.17

PnL

-$3.84

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

PnL

-$1.23

Record

14-187 (201)

VivianWardCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.07

Value

$0.07

PnL

+$0.07

Record

86%

3499-571 (4070)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

312 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

90% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.4%

0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7026.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

7126.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.