Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 10 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $128 held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$128.46

Combined PnL

-$662.59

Smart Money Entry

0.3¢ → 0.1¢

-81% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$128.45

Total Shares256,910

Combined PnL-$662.59

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CarCTR	Yesavg 0.2¢	$341.77	$85.48	-$256.29	67% 4164-2026 (6190)
0X 0x62764005C3F58450d21DA9984F6eab56cF3c2Dd9-1765423921985CTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$118.11	$15	-$103.11	64% 154-88 (242)
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$173.72	$13.29	-$194.4	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
ME melonmanmCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$21.5	$5.38	-$16.12	65% 526-281 (807)
0xdc3E831cadCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$44.45	$3.1	-$42.27	49% 1830-1896 (3726)
GollumGekkoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$20.65	$2.5	-$24.91	68% 2074-957 (3031)
FA failstoberCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$13.5	$1.86	-$22.91	26% 351-985 (1336)
probabilityCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0	$1.57	+$1.57	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yes	$0.15	$0.15	-$2.14	7% 14-187 (201)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$2.15	$0.14	-$2.01	45% 1905-2348 (4253)

CarCTR

Yes

Invested

$341.77

Value

$85.48

PnL

-$256.29

Record

67%

4164-2026 (6190)

0x62764005C3F58450d21DA9984F6eab56cF3c2Dd9-1765423921985CTR

Yes

Invested

$118.11

Value

$15

PnL

-$103.11

Record

64%

154-88 (242)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$173.72

Value

$13.29

PnL

-$194.4

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

melonmanmCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.5

Value

$5.38

PnL

-$16.12

Record

65%

526-281 (807)

0xdc3E831cadCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.45

Value

$3.1

PnL

-$42.27

Record

49%

1830-1896 (3726)

GollumGekkoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.65

Value

$2.5

PnL

-$24.91

Record

68%

2074-957 (3031)

failstoberCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.5

Value

$1.86

PnL

-$22.91

Record

26%

351-985 (1336)

probabilityCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$1.57

PnL

+$1.57

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.15

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$2.14

Record

14-187 (201)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.15

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$2.01

Record

45%

1905-2348 (4253)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9061.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

9161.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.