Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 10 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.8¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$7.7K

Combined PnL

$-1.1K

Smart Money Entry

0.9¢ → 0.8¢

-13% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$7.7K

Total Shares1,025,745

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

32 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RememberAmalekCTR	Yesavg 0.9¢	$7.6K	$6.1K	-$978.24	56% 973-769 (1742)
LinaBellCTR	Yesavg 0.9¢	$1.0K	$814.08	-$207.73	64% 1197-678 (1875)
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$173.73	$634.2	+$37.29	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
0xdc3E831cadCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$44.45	$46.49	+$1.12	49% 1830-1896 (3726)
FA failstoberCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$13.5	$27.83	+$3.07	26% 351-985 (1336)
DonkovCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$22.39	$16.8	-$5.6	71% 968-396 (1364)
CO cocococococoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$12.82	$15.02	+$2.19	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$1.41	$7.08	-$1.43	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yes	$2.57	$2.57	-$0.11	7% 14-187 (201)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.04	$0.14	+$0.14	33% 6263-12990 (19253)

RememberAmalekCTR

Yes

Invested

$7,583.09

Value

$6.1K

PnL

-$978.24

Record

56%

973-769 (1742)

LinaBellCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,023.03

Value

$814.08

PnL

-$207.73

Record

64%

1197-678 (1875)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$173.73

Value

$634.2

PnL

+$37.29

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

0xdc3E831cadCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.45

Value

$46.49

PnL

+$1.12

Record

49%

1830-1896 (3726)

failstoberCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.5

Value

$27.83

PnL

+$3.07

Record

26%

351-985 (1336)

DonkovCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.39

Value

$16.8

PnL

-$5.6

Record

71%

968-396 (1364)

cocococococoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.82

Value

$15.02

PnL

+$2.19

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.41

Value

$7.08

PnL

-$1.43

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.57

Value

$2.57

PnL

-$0.11

Record

14-187 (201)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.14

PnL

+$0.14

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

32 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 3

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.8%

0.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5398.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

5498.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.