Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Atlanta Falcons win the 2027 NFL league championship?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (70%) · Yes at 1.3¢ · $3K held · ends Apr 1, 2027

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Thu, Apr 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 70%

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

$2.0K

Smart Money Entry

0.5¢ → 1.3¢

+164% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares265,092

Combined PnL+$2.0K

No3 traders

Total Value$34.17

Total Shares35

Combined PnL-$0

Yes — 70%No — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Late

4826h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

89 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 57% · 7

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 78% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NooseracCTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$760.53	$2.3K	+$1.6K	52% 5832-5416 (11248)
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 0.6¢	$372.97	$820.26	+$447.29	41% 1986-2802 (4788)
NE neymar1CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$31.78	$79.44	+$47.67	30% 324-771 (1095)
probabilityCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$12.17	$68.25	-$78.62	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
WO wokerjoesleeper<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$24.21	$24.29	+$0.08	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
0xdc3E831cadCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$0	$12.25	+$12.25	49% 1830-1896 (3726)
DI Diabolical-Prize<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$5	$4.94	-$0.04	48% 175-192 (367)
0X 0xd9670ea74384c1e1b9dc1e4267ffadaf4cdd140<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$4.98	$4.94	-$0.04	73% 41-15 (56)
GG GGLPLCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.8	$1.25	+$0.45	50% 697-693 (1390)
EdZacharyCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$0.63	$1.13	+$0.5	40% 94-142 (236)

NooseracCTR

Yes

Invested

$760.53

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

52%

5832-5416 (11248)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$372.97

Value

$820.26

PnL

+$447.29

Record

41%

1986-2802 (4788)

neymar1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.78

Value

$79.44

PnL

+$47.67

Record

30%

324-771 (1095)

probabilityCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.17

Value

$68.25

PnL

-$78.62

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

wokerjoesleeper<$100

Invested

$24.21

Value

$24.29

PnL

+$0.08

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

0xdc3E831cadCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$12.25

PnL

+$12.25

Record

49%

1830-1896 (3726)

Diabolical-Prize<$100

Invested

Value

$4.94

PnL

-$0.04

Record

48%

175-192 (367)

0xd9670ea74384c1e1b9dc1e4267ffadaf4cdd140<$100

Invested

$4.98

Value

$4.94

PnL

-$0.04

Record

73%

41-15 (56)

GGLPLCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.8

Value

$1.25

PnL

+$0.45

Record

50%

697-693 (1390)

EdZacharyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.63

Value

$1.13

PnL

+$0.5

Record

40%

94-142 (236)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Late

4826h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

89 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 57% · 7

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 78% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.4%

1.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4137.34

Max Loss

-$100.00

4237.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.