Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (90%). 8 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Michigan Senate election by 12% or more?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 9.6¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 4

Yes10¢No90¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$390.76

Smart Money Entry

6.6¢ → 9.6¢

+45% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 90%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$667.19

Total Shares7,011

Combined PnL+$378.15

No2 traders

Total Value$237.81

Total Shares255

Combined PnL+$12.61

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+30 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Mature

28h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlCTR	Yesavg 8.6¢	$243.81	$269.9	+$26.08	—
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 85.6¢	$205.01	$217.9	+$12.9	53% 7631-6759 (14390)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR	Yesavg 7.6¢	$19	$213.35	+$216.8	45% 2390-2958 (5348)
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 93.1¢	$368.95	$114.11	+$18.07	35% 17316-32015 (49331)
└ No leg	Noavg 93.1¢	$76.77	$75.02	-$119.45
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 5.4¢	$23.35	$39.09	+$137.52
BigRabbitCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$18.94	$81.75	+$62.81	40% 706-1067 (1773)
LornaPredictsCTR	Yesavg 2.6¢	$561.08	$53.3	+$38.79	20% 2375-9305 (11680)
LA lava-lavaCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.3¢	$5.07	$35.99	+$30.92	42% 541-736 (1277)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495<$100	Noavg 91.8¢	$22	$19.91	-$0.29	57% 17238-13008 (30246)
LE legioncreCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$5.44	$5.77	+$0.33	— 10-4 (14)
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.9¢	$2.95	$4.75	+$1.8	36% 1961-3488 (5449)
LE LesterDiamondCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.1¢	$1.76	$2.38	+$0.62	63% 5494-3247 (8741)

0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlCTR

Yes

Invested

$243.81

Value

$269.9

PnL

+$26.08

Record

—

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$205.01

Value

$217.9

PnL

+$12.9

Record

53%

7631-6759 (14390)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR

Yes

Invested

$19

Value

$213.35

PnL

+$216.8

Record

45%

2390-2958 (5348)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$368.95

Value

$114.11

PnL

+$18.07

Record

35%

17316-32015 (49331)

Both legs:

No$76.7793.1¢-$119.45

Yes$23.355.4¢+$137.52

BigRabbitCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.94

Value

$81.75

PnL

+$62.81

Record

40%

706-1067 (1773)

LornaPredictsCTR

Yes

Invested

$561.08

Value

$53.3

PnL

+$38.79

Record

20%

2375-9305 (11680)

lava-lavaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.07

Value

$35.99

PnL

+$30.92

Record

42%

541-736 (1277)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495<$100

Invested

$22

Value

$19.91

PnL

-$0.29

Record

57%

17238-13008 (30246)

legioncreCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.44

Value

$5.77

PnL

+$0.33

Record

—

10-4 (14)

JordanMooneyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.95

Value

$4.75

PnL

+$1.8

Record

36%

1961-3488 (5449)

LesterDiamondCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.76

Value

$2.38

PnL

+$0.62

Record

63%

5494-3247 (8741)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 90%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+30 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Mature

28h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance10.9%

9.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$815.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

915.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.