Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (55%). 5 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the Democratic Party win the KY-06 House seat?

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 46¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 4

Yes55¢No45¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$12.8K

Combined PnL

$423.76

Smart Money Entry

73.1¢ → 45.5¢

-38% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 46%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes55%

No46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$8.5K

Total Shares15,680

Combined PnL+$3.0K

No5 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares9,458

Combined PnL$-2.6K

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Late

699h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836	Yesavg 35.6¢	$3.5K	$5.4K	+$1.9K	61% 203-132 (335)
AN anoin123CTR	Noavg 74¢	$6.5K	$4.0K	$-2.5K	47% 474-534 (1008)
mrworldwide	Yesavg 40.9¢	$1.2K	$1.6K	+$402.59	69% 804-359 (1163)
BigRabbit	Yesavg 26¢	$650	$1.4K	+$712.5	40% 704-1061 (1765)
Optimus-	Yesavg 44¢	$122.14	$151.28	+$30.53	61% 1200-767 (1967)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR	Noavg 48.5¢	$96.46	$95.5	-$0.97	40% 174-265 (439)
PL plumbisCTR	Noavg 73¢	$153.29	$94.5	-$57.75	57% 51-39 (90)
LI linethCTR	Noavg 68¢	$130.56	$86.4	-$45.12	41% 245-350 (595)
CO cowcat<$100	Yesavg 24.6¢	$11.39	$27.25	+$15.86	53% 1560-1362 (2922)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Noavg 46.3¢	$26.25	$25.5	-$0.47	52% 2050-1868 (3918)

0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836

Yes

Invested

$3,522.61

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

61%

203-132 (335)

anoin123CTR

Invested

$6,502.51

Value

$4.0K

PnL

$-2.5K

Record

47%

474-534 (1008)

mrworldwide

Yes

Invested

$1,208.34

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$402.59

Record

69%

804-359 (1163)

BigRabbit

Yes

Invested

$650

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$712.5

Record

40%

704-1061 (1765)

Optimus-

Yes

Invested

$122.14

Value

$151.28

PnL

+$30.53

Record

61%

1200-767 (1967)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR

Invested

$96.46

Value

$95.5

PnL

-$0.97

Record

40%

174-265 (439)

plumbisCTR

Invested

$153.29

Value

$94.5

PnL

-$57.75

Record

57%

51-39 (90)

linethCTR

Invested

$130.56

Value

$86.4

PnL

-$45.12

Record

41%

245-350 (595)

cowcat<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.39

Value

$27.25

PnL

+$15.86

Record

53%

1560-1362 (2922)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Invested

$26.25

Value

$25.5

PnL

-$0.47

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 46%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Late

699h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.5%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$110.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

210.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.