Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (52%). 9 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the Democratic Party win the ME-02 House seat?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (90%) · Yes at 49¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 4

Yes49¢No51¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 90%

Total Value

$8.1K

Combined PnL

$110.56

Smart Money Entry

43.9¢ → 48.5¢

+11% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors No 52%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes49%

No52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares4,235

Combined PnL-$467.03

Yes9 traders

Total Value$6.0K

Total Shares12,412

Combined PnL+$577.59

No — 10%Yes — 90%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN anoin123	Noavg 62.5¢	$2.6K	$2.2K	-$467.03	47% 474-534 (1008)
ME Melody626CTR	Yesavg 48¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$20.05	58% 705-521 (1226)
CO cocococococoCTR	Yesavg 43.5¢	$938.71	$1.0K	+$107.54	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
BigRabbitCTR	Yesavg 39¢	$780	$960	+$190	40% 704-1061 (1765)
Optimus-CTR	Yesavg 44.4¢	$845	$914.13	+$78.66	61% 1200-767 (1967)
LO Loyalty-CrashCTR	Yesavg 39¢	$585	$720	+$142.5	62% 45-28 (73)
StarMasterCTR	Yesavg 45¢	$222.5	$240	+$17.5	53% 1857-1640 (3497)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR	Yesavg 42.3¢	$125.48	$143.74	+$18.27	38% 20-32 (52)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Yesavg 38¢	$9.11	$11.65	+$2.55	40% 174-265 (439)
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836CTR<$100	Yesavg 46¢	$9.66	$10.19	+$0.53	61% 203-132 (335)

anoin123

Invested

$2,648.18

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$467.03

Record

47%

474-534 (1008)

Melody626CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,924.14

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$20.05

Record

58%

705-521 (1226)

cocococococoCTR

Yes

Invested

$938.71

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$107.54

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

BigRabbitCTR

Yes

Invested

$780

Value

$960

PnL

+$190

Record

40%

704-1061 (1765)

Optimus-CTR

Yes

Invested

$845

Value

$914.13

PnL

+$78.66

Record

61%

1200-767 (1967)

Loyalty-CrashCTR

Yes

Invested

$585

Value

$720

PnL

+$142.5

Record

62%

45-28 (73)

StarMasterCTR

Yes

Invested

$222.5

Value

$240

PnL

+$17.5

Record

53%

1857-1640 (3497)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR

Yes

Invested

$125.48

Value

$143.74

PnL

+$18.27

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.11

Value

$11.65

PnL

+$2.55

Record

40%

174-265 (439)

0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.66

Value

$10.19

PnL

+$0.53

Record

61%

203-132 (335)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 49%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors No 52%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.5%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$98.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

198.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.