Will the Democratic Party win the MT-01 House seat?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 60¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 4

Yes60¢No40¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$12.8K

Combined PnL

$2.7K

Smart Money Entry

35.8¢ → 59.5¢

+66% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes60%

No41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$10.4K

Total Shares17,566

Combined PnL+$4.1K

No4 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares5,986

Combined PnL$-1.3K

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

11 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BigRabbit	Yesavg 30.9¢	$3.1K	$6.0K	+$2.9K	40% 704-1061 (1765)
twinna	Yesavg 35.9¢	$1.3K	$2.1K	+$826.39	50% 92-93 (185)
AN anoin123CTR	Noavg 64¢	$3.0K	$1.9K	$-1.1K	47% 474-534 (1008)
CO cocococococo	Yesavg 60.9¢	$873.49	$846.85	-$26.64	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836	Yesavg 39¢	$506.18	$765.01	+$258.83	61% 203-132 (335)
Optimus-	Yesavg 44¢	$396	$531	+$135	61% 1200-767 (1967)
AB ABC12345654321CTR	No	$422.37	$422.37	-$224.64	50% 1658-1652 (3310)
CO Contestable-Parfait	Yesavg 45.7¢	$91.5	$118	+$26.5	38% 20-32 (52)
4751346CTR	Noavg 54¢	$127.05	$96.47	-$30.59	72% 1257-483 (1740)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100	Noavg 38¢	$1.99	$2.15	+$0.16	50% 2582-2633 (5215)

BigRabbit

Yes

Invested

$3,131.88

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$2.9K

Record

40%

704-1061 (1765)

twinna

Yes

Invested

$1,288.28

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$826.39

Record

50%

92-93 (185)

anoin123CTR

Invested

$3,017.8

Value

$1.9K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

47%

474-534 (1008)

cocococococo

Yes

Invested

$873.49

Value

$846.85

PnL

-$26.64

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836

Yes

Invested

$506.18

Value

$765.01

PnL

+$258.83

Record

61%

203-132 (335)

Optimus-

Yes

Invested

$396

Value

$531

PnL

+$135

Record

61%

1200-767 (1967)

ABC12345654321CTR

Invested

$422.37

Value

$422.37

PnL

-$224.64

Record

50%

1658-1652 (3310)

Contestable-Parfait

Yes

Invested

$91.5

Value

$118

PnL

+$26.5

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

4751346CTR

Invested

$127.05

Value

$96.47

PnL

-$30.59

Record

72%

1257-483 (1740)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100

Invested

$1.99

Value

$2.15

PnL

+$0.16

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 60%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

11 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.5%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.