Will the Democrats win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 92¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4

Yes9¢No91¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

-$348

Smart Money Entry

91.1¢ → 91.5¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,259

Combined PnL+$9.33

Yes3 traders

Total Value$420.39

Total Shares4,946

Combined PnL-$357.33

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Late

1798h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CO Contestable-Parfait	Noavg 90.7¢	$749.08	$685.41	+$6.04	38% 20-32 (52)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 91.5¢	$509.39	$509.6	+$0.21	53% 6689-5886 (12575)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107	Noavg 92.9¢	$380.7	$377.2	-$5.55	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
11 11122	Noavg 90¢	$360	$368	+$6	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
SU supersmardCTR	Yesavg 10¢	$400	$340	-$60	39% 46-71 (117)
probability<$100	Noavg 87¢	$52.2	$55.2	+$2.7	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 90.5¢	$53.93	$54.53	+$0.6	56% 14224-11030 (25254)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$54	$48.8	-$2.87	52% 2050-1868 (3918)
AB ABC12345654321CTR	Yesavg 10.3¢	$723.8	$31.59	-$294.46	50% 1658-1652 (3310)
QM QMG-CORE<$100	Noavg 94¢	$25.23	$24.56	-$0.67	77% 1408-416 (1824)

Contestable-Parfait

Invested

$749.08

Value

$685.41

PnL

+$6.04

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$509.39

Value

$509.6

PnL

+$0.21

Record

53%

6689-5886 (12575)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107

Invested

$380.7

Value

$377.2

PnL

-$5.55

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

11122

Invested

$360

Value

$368

PnL

+$6

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

supersmardCTR

Yes

Invested

$400

Value

$340

PnL

-$60

Record

39%

46-71 (117)

probability<$100

Invested

$52.2

Value

$55.2

PnL

+$2.7

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$53.93

Value

$54.53

PnL

+$0.6

Record

56%

14224-11030 (25254)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$54

Value

$48.8

PnL

-$2.87

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

ABC12345654321CTR

Yes

Invested

$723.8

Value

$31.59

PnL

-$294.46

Record

50%

1658-1652 (3310)

QMG-CORE<$100

Invested

$25.23

Value

$24.56

PnL

-$0.67

Record

77%

1408-416 (1824)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Late

1798h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.